DailyPlay Updates – June 9, 2022

The SPX continues to toy with the 4100 level, but does continue to close above it despite several intraday breaches of it over the past two weeks.  And as I’ve said before, as long as the 4020 level holds on a pullback, I still think the market could have some legs to it.

That being said, with the futures down as I write this Wednesday night, I don’t want to continue adding more long exposure (we’ve already done some this week) until the bulls prove themselves. And make no mistake about it: It is the bulls who need to prove their case; not the bears. The latter have continuously and successfully proven theirs’s all year long. It is beholden on the bulls to make us believe that this rally has more to go. I’m not in the bearish camp yet, but with price in a tight range for the past eight trading sessions, the onus is on the bulls to push prices higher. That would make the late-to-the-game bears have to cover shorts, and only when enough of them are out of the picture could we then again think of selling into strength.

Bulls will have to not only push higher now, but also keep it going to stay above 4350, for only a proper move above there would virtually eliminate the bearish argument that naysayers have effectively been able to lean on in 2022. (My guess is that if/when we got up there, we’d be more apt to be shorting names– looking for a potential failure when bears are screaming “get me out at any price” and the all too frequently interviewed on TV perma-bulls will be saying “We told you so”.

SPX – Daily

So, today, we sit back and watch to see if: A) 4100 level holds as support by the close, and B) if there is there any new sign of position stress from either the bulls or the bears. Eight days is about the maximum sideways move we’ve seen all year, so I expect a resolution to this ennui to happen by Friday’s close. 

Make sure you’re buckled up and know where your closest exit door is. And thank you for flying Tumult Airlines.

– Rick Bensignor
Chief Market Strategist