DailyPlay Updates – March 22, 2023

Investors poured back into financials – especially regional banks – as fears have quickly dissipated over the banking crisis. Can it actually be that there were but 3 “cockroaches” in the cabinet? I’m not convinced that more won’t come scampering out, but I am open and happy to being wrong, if that’s the way this all ultimately plays out. Meanwhile, the overall market moves higher on the bounce from the non-breakdown at 3864.

SPX – Daily

Today is the culmination of two weeks’ worth of important economic data that have led up to today’s FOMC announcement. The collective market is betting on a 25 bps. rate increase today, but we’ll see if that occurs, and just as – if not more importantly – what Chair Powell says in his 2:30pm ET press conference. Every word out of his mouth is scrutinized, so always be at the ready on a Fed day for lots of potential fireworks.

Given the potential volatility and meaning behind today’s Fed statement, I am not putting on a new position today. As per our open positions, the only one that I don’t like is that we saw something like a 50% gain in our TLT trade slide yesterday into a small loss. My bad for not alerting to the following beforehand, but as a blanket rule, if we are ever up 50% or more on a trade, make sure you have a stop in at no worse than what was your entry price on the position.

TLT – Daily

There are now two gaps near current levels: one above and one below. Both could be filled by the end of the week, but let’s look to close out the TLT spread trade at breakeven entry price of or near $2.20 any day this week.