DailyPlay – Opening Trade (MSFT) – April 30, 2025

MSFT Bullish Opening Trade Signal

Investment Rationale

We’re bullish on Microsoft (MSFT) heading into its earnings report today, Wednesday, April 30th, after the market close. As one of the most systemically important software providers globally, Microsoft offers a rare blend of stability, innovation, and growth — attributes that are especially valuable in today’s uncertain macro backdrop. The company’s strong positioning in AI, cloud infrastructure, and enterprise software makes it well-leveraged to outperform as sentiment improves and investors re-engage with high-quality tech. 

Recent price action in MSFT points to improving technical strength. The stock bounced off $375 support and has moved back above its 20-day moving average, indicating short-term bullish sentiment. Resistance near $400 remains a key hurdle, and a breakout above that level, aided by strong earnings, would confirm further upside potential. Momentum indicators are supportive, with the MACD flashing a bullish crossover and relative strength versus the Nasdaq trending upward over the past week.

Microsoft’s business model and financial profile remain robust despite macroeconomic headwinds. The company’s software-centric operations provide stability, while AI and cloud adoption trends continue to support forward growth:

• Forward PE Ratio: 26.34x vs. Industry Median 26.17x
• Expected EPS Growth: 13.95% vs. Industry Median 12.54%
• Expected Revenue Growth: 13.63% vs. Industry Median 6.87%
• Net Margins: 35.43% vs. Industry Median 10.19%

To position for a possible bullish move after earnings with defined risk, consider the May 16, 392.5/410 call vertical spread for a net debit. This spread offers a max reward if MSFT closes above $410 by the May 16th expiration. The trade targets a moderate upside move through the $400 level, aligning with technical resistance and anticipated post-earnings momentum. With 17 days to expiry, the structure provides a near-term catalyst-driven opportunity while mitigating downside with limited capital at risk.

MSFT – Daily

Trade Details

Strategy Details

Strategy: Long Call Vertical Spread

Direction: Bullish Debit Spread

Details: Buy to Open 3 Contracts MSFT May 16 $392.5/$410 Call Vertical Spreads @ $7.77 Debit per Contract.

Total Risk: This trade has a max risk of $2,331 (3 Contracts x $777) based on a hypothetical $100k portfolio risking 2%. We suggest risking only 2% of the value of your portfolio and divide it by $777 to select the # contracts for your portfolio.

Trend Continuation Signal: This is a bullish trade on a stock that is expected to continue higher off recent support.

1M/6M Trends: Bullish/Neutral

Relative Strength: 5/10

OptionsPlay Score: 90

Stop Loss: @ $3.89 (50% loss of premium)

View MSFT Trade

Entering the Trade

Use the following details to enter the trade on your trading platform. Please note that whenever there is a multi-leg option strategy, it should be entered as a single trade. 

PLEASE NOTE that these prices are based on Tuesday’s closing prices. Should the underlying move significantly during the pre-market hours, we will likely adjust the strikes and prices to reflect a more accurate trade entry. 

View MSFT Trade