AI-earnings validation drove records: All three majors set or approached highs, with the S&P up 1.79% and the Dow up 1.71% to fresh all-time highs and the Nasdaq up 2.59%, completing a two-day recovery from late-July’s AI-spending scare. Palantir was the catalyst, ripping 29.45% after Q2 revenue grew 93% and US commercial revenue jumped 149%, with management raising full-year guidance and signaling enterprise AI is moving from pilots to at-scale spend.
Caterpillar confirmed the AI-infrastructure derivative: Caterpillar rose 5.6% on record Q2 revenue of $20.5B and adjusted EPS of $8.17 against $6.20 consensus, with data-center power-generation revenue up 29% and total backlog swelling 92% to $72B into 2030. The tape is now treating CAT as a pick-and-shovel play behind hyperscaler capex.
Oil broke back below pre-war levels: WTI fell 6.20% to $75.36 and Brent lost 5.68% to $79.01, its first sub-$80 close in months, on continued optimism around a Strait of Hormuz reopening and a fifth straight OPEC+ output hike. The 10-year fell 6 basis points to 4.63% on a soft June JOLTS print of 7.36 million openings, a rare combination of lower rates, lower oil, and higher stocks.
AMD flagged the caution: AMD fell more than 8% after hours despite a clean beat and a strong Q3 guide, with data-center revenue up 107%, a signal that the AI trade has re-inflated to a level where beat-and-raise is no longer enough. The VIX rose 4% into the close as the market bought protection ahead of the earnings gauntlet and Friday’s July jobs report.
OptionsPlay Trade Ideas: The Daily Brief
💰 The Income Generators (High Probability, Cash Flow)
AVGO: Selling a put spread as Broadcom breaks out above $400 with maximum relative strength toward $495.
🚀 The Growth Seekers (Higher Risk, Max Reward)
ZM: Adding a call spread as Zoom breaks out above $100 with another outperformance signal toward $121.
🛡️ The Portfolio Protectors (Hedges & Bearish Bets)
No trades today for this category.
1. AVGO ($418.16): Selling Puts Into the $400 Breakout
We’re betting on: Broadcom is compounding 46% AI-semiconductor growth as custom-silicon demand accelerates, and for AVGO to stay above $400 by expiration to capture the full credit.
The Trade: Sell to Open the AVGO Sep 18, 2026 400/380 Put Vertical @ $7.68 Credit.
🔴 SELL TO OPEN Sep 18, 2026 400 Put @ $23.68
🟢 BUY TO OPEN Sep 18, 2026 380 Put @ $16.00
Trade Metrics: POP: 58.18% | Collect $768 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $1,232 (1.60:1).
The Setup: AVGO crossed above its 50-day moving average at $394.62 and triggered an early-breakout signal above its $400 resistance to $418.16 on strong volume, in a bullish 1-month and 6-month trend with relative strength at a maximum 10/10 and a $495 upside target. The fundamentals are elite: fiscal Q2 2026 revenue grew 20% to $16.75B with AI semiconductor revenue up 46% to $6.1B, a 69% adjusted-EBITDA margin, and $6.8B of free cash flow, while custom-AI-chip programs across six core hyperscale customers point to a $60B to $90B opportunity in fiscal 2027. The 400/380 put vertical collects $768 against $1,232 of risk with a 58.18% probability of profit and a breakeven of $392.32, back below the reclaimed breakout.
Management:
⚠️ Warning: Earnings are scheduled for September 2, 2026, potentially requiring active monitoring around the event.
Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $15.36 (100% loss of credit received).
Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $3.84 (50% of max gain).
2. ZM ($102.12): Adding to the Winner on the $100 Breakout
We’re betting on: Zoom is inflecting on AI monetization as AI Companion adoption surges and the stock breaks out, and for ZM to close above $120 by expiration to capture the full spread.
The Trade: Buy to Open the ZM Sep 18, 2026 100/120 Call Vertical @ $6.58 Debit.
🟢 BUY TO OPEN Sep 18, 2026 100 Call @ $8.95
🔴 SELL TO OPEN Sep 18, 2026 120 Call @ $2.37
Trade Metrics: POP: 37.15% | Pay $658 per contract vs. a Max Reward of $1,342 (2.04:1).
The Setup: ZM broke out above its $100 level to $102.12 and generated another outperformance signal, in a bullish 1-month and 6-month trend with relative strength at 9/10 and a target toward its $121 resistance. This adds to a winner we already own: our initial short Sep 18 95/87.5 put vertical from August 3 is up about 31% (+$483), and now that the breakout has extended we are adding a call spread for leveraged upside. The fundamentals are turning, with fiscal 2026 revenue of $4.87B, enterprise revenue up 7.1%, and AI Companion adoption up 184% year over year as monthly active users tripled, all at a cheap 14 times earnings with a strong balance sheet. The 100/120 call vertical costs $658 and pays up to $1,342 if ZM reaches $120, a 2.04:1 payout on strictly defined risk, with a breakeven of $106.58 and maximum value at or above the $120 short strike by September expiration.
Management:
⚠️ Warning: Earnings are scheduled for August 25, 2026, potentially requiring active monitoring around the event.
Stop Loss: Sell the spread at $3.29 (50% loss on premium).
Take Profit: Sell the spread at $11.52 (75% gain on premium).
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