DailyPlay Updates – October 7, 2022

Investment Rationale

Today is one of the more important trading days of the month, with the Sept. jobs numbers coming out at 8:30am ET. Given yesterday’s decline of 1%, some must already be expecting a bad number and sold in advance. A well-higher than expected number (consensus is about 250K jobs created) could send the week’s gains away by the close. (Maybe even by the open.) On the flip side, bulls are hoping for a lower than expected number with what I believe is a false hope that the Fed will change their course at all come next Wednesday’s FOMC statement.

As you probably have already figured, given the unknown news of the day – along with a weekly option expiration – I am not putting out a new DP today. It’s just too hard to guess what price action will be with both 8:30 and then 10am (i.e., Wholesale Inventories) economic reports coming.

With this past Monday’s weekly market outlook webinar; yesterday’s Institutional Mindset webinar, and then this morning’s open Q&A session that I am hosting at 8:45am, you will have heard enough from Rick for a while. (And heck, I’m back Monday morning again, too.)  I’ve been clear in my thoughts:  I see virtually no chance that the Fed is going to pivot just weeks after its chairman made it very clear what they need to do, regardless of the “pain felt to individuals or businesses”. He drew the line in the sand. He’s not crossing it anytime in the near future.

So, maybe the market still has some legs to it. I hope so. It would still give us an opportunity to lighten exposure before 2023 earnings numbers get lowered, which will virtually force the market lower to more closely match what will be new PE ratios. 

– Rick Bensignor
Chief Market Strategist