DailyPlay – Closing Trade (ORCL) – June 15, 2022

Closing Trade

ORCL: 62.30% Loss: Buy to Close 6 Contracts June 17, 2022 $167.50/$172.50 Put Verticals @ $1.98 Debit. DailyPlay Portfolio: By closing 6 of the 6 Contracts, we will be paying $1,188.

DailyPlay Updates

With our CVS long put option expiring on Friday, we’ll wait till the end of the day today to determine what we’ll do with the balance of our position. If CVS is up on the day heading into the close, then we’ll cover the balance then. If it’s down on the day going into the close, we’ll cover the balance tomorrow.

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Today is Fed day, and the Street is guessing how much the FOMC is going to raise rates. What was a heavy bet on 50 bps. just days ago has now turned into a consensus 75 bps. bump up this afternoon. We don’t know how investors are going to react to what the Fed does, and we’ll have to see what Chair Powell’s news conference does to the initial knee-jerk reaction when the figure comes out at 2pm. ET.

I surely am not looking to put a new trade on this morning, and can’t possibly now tell you what you might occur in the afternoon. So, yes, we sit and watch.

What I can tell you is that regardless of the reaction tomorrow, I do not think that the market woes are over. Earnings revisions are coming down faster than the market has priced in, so the upside remains limited, and we’ll still be looking into selling rallies until there is both more equilibrium in that relationship and we get a sense that interest rates are done going up.  Until that happens, it’s hard to make a case for investing in equities. Add to that mix a US dollar that keeps rallying and a potential crisis brewing in Italy that may ultimately force them out of the EU, and you have the makings of a situation that isn’t close to a resolution favoring bullish activity.

Could the market rally from these deeply oversold levels? Sure; anytime.  But will we likely get a lasting rally? I wouldn’t bet on it. So, while all major equity indexes’ weekly cloud model’s Conversion Lines remain as resistance, I’m gonna stay in the bear camp and look to lean into rallies. (I just hope they come.)