OptionsPlay DailyPlay Ideas Menu – July 15th, 2026

📊 What’s Driving The Market

• June CPI came in cleanly dovish, but bonds shrugged: Headline CPI fell 0.4% month over month, twice the expected decline and the largest monthly drop in more than six years, pulling the year-over-year rate to 3.5% from 4.2%, while core was flat and eased to 2.6%. A 5.7% collapse in the energy component drove it and September rate-hike odds fell to about 63% from over 75%. Tellingly, the 10-year yield barely budged, closing at 4.59% down just 2 basis points, a sign the bond market is not buying a rapid, durable disinflation. With the Middle East re-escalating and energy already reversing higher, the tape is reading June as more of an isolated datapoint than a trend, and inflation may well rear its head again.
• Bank earnings beat but split hard: All five money-center banks cleared consensus, yet the reactions diverged sharply, with Goldman up 9.00% and JPMorgan up 2.50% on strong capital-markets fees against Wells Fargo down 2.71% and Citigroup down 5.29% on cautious guidance. The tape is trading banks on forward guidance and positioning rather than backward-looking beats.
• IBM sank while semis snapped back: IBM collapsed 25.21% after pre-announcing soft Q2 profits, subtracting roughly 480 points from the Dow on its own, while semiconductors rebounded with the SOXX up 2.58%, Nvidia up 4.06%, and Micron up 4.92%. Technology led six of eleven green S&P sectors as the barbell rotated out of defensives.
• Iran risk re-inflated commodities: WTI rose 2.97% to $80.46 and Brent 3.55% to $86.26 as US airstrikes continued and Iran reimposed a coastal blockade, while gold climbed 1.62% to $4,061.90 on haven demand. Oil and gold rallying alongside equities is the tell of a two-track market, and if Brent holds above $85 the July inflation print could snap hike odds back up.

OptionsPlay Trade Ideas: The Daily Brief

💰 The Income Generators (High Probability, Cash Flow)

• RDDT: Adding again to our confirmed-leader position with a put spread as RDDT bases above $200 toward $260.
• SHOP: Selling a put spread as SHOP bases between $100 and $135 with improving relative strength toward $165.

🚀 The Growth Seekers (Higher Risk, Max Reward)

• No trades today for this category.

🛡️ The Portfolio Protectors (Hedges & Bearish Bets)

• PEP: Adding one final bearish put spread as staples underperform and PEP breaks its $135 support toward $130.

1. RDDT ($203.27): Pressing the Confirmed Leader Toward $260

• We’re betting on: Reddit is compounding advertising revenue at 74% with daily users up 17% and new AI content-licensing deals, and for RDDT to stay above $200 by expiration to capture the full credit.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the RDDT Aug 28, 2026 200/175 Put Vertical @ $9.98 Credit.
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN Aug 28, 2026 200 Put @ $20.88
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN Aug 28, 2026 175 Put @ $10.90
• Trade Metrics: POP: 52.95% | Collect $998 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $1,502 (1.51:1).
• The Setup: RDDT broke out above $180 on strong relative strength, has formed a base above $200 at $203.27, and now sits on our confirmed-leader list with both the 1-month and 6-month trends bullish and a $260 upside target. This adds again to a winner we already own: our short Aug 21 200/170 put vertical from July 7 is up about 9% (+$109), and layering a second credit put spread beneath the new base presses the same bullish thesis. The fundamentals are exceptional: Q1 2026 revenue grew 69% year over year to $663M with ad revenue up 74% to $625M, daily active uniques up 17% to 126.8 million, and content-licensing deals with Google and OpenAI supporting roughly $550M in potential annual renewal revenue as Reddit targets 1 billion users. The 200/175 put vertical collects $998 against $1,502 of risk with a 52.95% probability of profit and a breakeven of $190.02, back inside the base.
• Management:
  • ⚠️ Warning: Earnings are scheduled for July 30, 2026, potentially requiring active monitoring around the event.
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $19.96 (100% loss of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $4.99 (50% of max gain).

2. SHOP ($125.68): Selling Puts Into the Base

• We’re betting on: Shopify is compounding 34% revenue growth with merchants clearing over $100 billion in quarterly GMV, and for SHOP to stay above $125 by expiration to capture the full credit.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the SHOP Aug 28, 2026 125/109 Put Vertical @ $6.55 Credit.
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN Aug 28, 2026 125 Put @ $11.73
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN Aug 28, 2026 109 Put @ $5.18
• Trade Metrics: POP: 54.39% | Collect $655 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $945 (1.44:1).
• The Setup: SHOP has formed a base between $100 and $135 and is at $125.68 with a bullish 1-month trend and improving relative strength that suggests a potential breakout toward our $165 target, and we are initiating a new position with a defined-risk credit put spread. The fundamentals back the base: Q1 2026 revenue grew 34% year over year to $3.17B with merchants clearing $100.74 billion in GMV, up 35% and a second straight quarter above $100 billion, North America posted its fastest growth in more than four years, and free-cash-flow margin held at 15%. The main caution is valuation, with the stock still richly multiplied, which is why we are selling premium rather than paying up for calls. The 125/109 put vertical collects $655 against $945 of risk with a 54.39% probability of profit and a breakeven of $118.45, near the middle of the base.
• Management:
  • ⚠️ Warning: Earnings are scheduled for August 5, 2026, potentially requiring active monitoring around the event.
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $13.10 (100% loss of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $3.28 (50% of max gain).

3. PEP ($135.45): Adding the Final Bearish Push Toward $130

• We’re betting on: Consumer staples keep underperforming and PepsiCo is in a bearish trend below major support, and for PEP to fall to $130 by expiration to capture the full spread.
• The Trade: Buy to Open the PEP Aug 21, 2026 135/130 Put Vertical @ $1.80 Debit.
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN Aug 21, 2026 135 Put @ $3.60
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN Aug 21, 2026 130 Put @ $1.80
• Trade Metrics: POP: 42.22% | Pay $180 per contract vs. a Max Reward of $320 (1.78:1).
• The Setup: PEP is breaking below its major $135 support at $135.45 in a bearish 1-month and 6-month trend with relative strength at just 4/10, extending toward our $130 downside target. This adds one final position to a bearish winner we already own: our long Jul 31 140/130 put vertical from June 18 is up about 52% (+$1,060), and this tightly defined Aug 21 135/130 spread presses the same thesis into the support break. The macro backdrop supports it, as this week’s tape rotated hard out of defensives and staples into cyclicals and secular growth while PepsiCo continues to face volume softness across its snacks and beverage portfolio. The 135/130 put vertical costs $180 and pays up to $320 if PEP falls to $130, a 1.78:1 payout on strictly defined risk, with a breakeven of $133.20 and maximum value at or below the $130 short strike by August expiration.
• Management:
  • Stop Loss: Sell the spread at $0.90 (50% loss on premium).
  • Take Profit: Sell the spread at $3.15 (75% gain on premium).