DailyPlay – Opening Trade (WMT) – November 18, 2025

WMT Bearish Opening Trade Signal

Investment Rationale

Investment Thesis
Walmart Inc. is set to report earnings this Thursday, November 20, before the open, and the setup into the announcement skews negatively based on valuation and positioning. As noted in the Earnings Navigator section of this week’s trade ideas research report, Walmart is highlighted as Significantly Overvalued, leaving the stock exposed if results or guidance do not justify the current premium. With shares pricing in a high multiple relative to industry norms, the stock appears vulnerable to downside repricing as investors reassess growth durability and margin progression.

Technical Analysis
WMT continues to struggle for upside traction, with shares unable to hold above the short-term moving averages and drifting within a choppy consolidation range. The recent cross of the 20-day moving average below the 50-day moving average underscores a weakening momentum backdrop and signals building downside pressure. The 100 level has acted as support on five separate occasions since early October, yet each successive test has shown diminishing resilience. A clean break below 100 would likely confirm a transition into a more sustained bearish trend.

Fundamental Analysis
From a valuation and growth perspective, Walmart’s current premium leaves little room for disappointment. The stock trades well above sector norms, while its growth metrics are broadly in line with peers, limiting justification for the elevated multiple. Key comparative metrics include:

• Forward PE Ratio: 36.23x vs. Industry Median 17.96x
• Expected EPS Growth: 8.99% vs. Industry Median 9.02%
• Expected Revenue Growth: 4.19% vs. Industry Median 4.98%
• Net Margins: 2.75% vs. Industry Median 2.36%

Options Trade
A bearish, defined-risk approach would be to initiate the WMT December 19, 2025 100/95 bear put vertical for a debit of roughly $1.32. This spread pairs a long 100 strike put with a short 95 strike put, forming a $5 wide spread. The maximum risk is limited to the $1.32 premium paid, while the maximum reward is $3.68 if WMT finishes at or below 95 at expiration. This creates a reward-to-risk ratio of approximately 2.8 to 1. The trade is designed to capitalize on a move lower into or following earnings and aligns with the broader bearish setup.

WMT – Daily

Trade Details

Strategy Details

Strategy: Long Put Vertical Spread

Direction: Bearish Debit Spread

Details: Buy to Open 15 WMT Dec 19 $100/$95 Put Vertical Spreads @ $1.32 Debit per Contract.

Total Risk: This trade has a max risk of $1,980 (15 Contracts x $132) based on a hypothetical $100k portfolio risking 2%. We suggest risking only 2% of the value of your portfolio and divide it by $132 to select the # contracts for your portfolio.

Trend Continuation Signal: This is a bearish trade on a stock that is expected to continue lower over the duration of this trade.

1M/6M Trends: Bearish/Neutral

Relative Strength: 5/10

OptionsPlay Score: 125

Stop Loss: @ $0.66 (50% loss of premium)

View WMT Trade

Entering the Trade

Use the following details to enter the trade on your trading platform. Please note that whenever there is a multi-leg option strategy, it should be entered as a single trade. 

PLEASE NOTE that these prices are based on Monday’s closing prices. Should the underlying move significantly during the pre-market hours, we will likely adjust the strikes and prices to reflect a more accurate trade entry. 

View WMT Trade