The Stagflation Playbook: What Worked in the 1970s and How We’re Positioning Now

A portfolio framework for navigating the macro environment most investors have never experienced firsthand

Most investors have never lived through stagflation. That’s about to matter a lot.

The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Commercial shipping has collapsed to near-zero. Oil is repricing for a sustained disruption, and inflation expectations are breaking out — while economic growth is decelerating. That combination has a name, and the last time it happened, it separated the investors who had a plan from those who didn’t.

During the 1973 OPEC shock, gold rose 80% and the S&P 500 dropped 37%. Energy stocks outperformed the broader market by over 40 percentage points. The 1979 Iranian Revolution delivered similar dispersion. These weren’t random outcomes — they were the predictable result of a specific macro regime. And the playbook for navigating it is well-documented, if you know where to look.

That’s what this research is. Not a list of tickers — a framework. We went back through both 1970s stagflation periods, mapped what outperformed and what collapsed, analyzed which of those patterns still apply in 2026, and built a complete portfolio around it.

What you’ll find inside:

The historical evidence for what works during stagflation, a detailed Then vs. Now comparison showing what’s different this time, and a rated portfolio across every major asset class — with clear guidance on what to overweight, what to avoid, and why.

Historical PlaybookWhat actually outperformed during both the ’73 and ’79 stagflation periods

Then vs. NowWhich 1970s patterns still hold — and which ones break in 2026

The Stagflation PortfolioRated positions across energy, metals, bonds, equities, and currencies

ImplementationHow to turn the framework into trade ideas on OptionsPlay

The research covers the asset classes that matter most in this environment — energy, commodities, precious metals, inflation-protected bonds, defensive equities, and currencies — with each position rated using a framework calibrated specifically to the current crisis.

The Stagflation Playbook is available now for OptionsPlay subscribers.

Coming this week: Private Credit — The Stagflation Accelerant

The $3 trillion private credit market — 2.3x the size of subprime at its 2007 peak — was already showing record defaults before the Hormuz crisis. In a stagflation environment where the Fed can’t cut rates, this market has nowhere to hide. Our companion deep dive covering 45+ companies and ETFs across 6 exposure layers drops later this week, exclusively for subscribers.

Live webinar: Monday, March 23 at 8:45 AM ET.