OptionsPlay DailyPlay Ideas Menu – July 23rd, 2026

📊 What’s Driving The Market

• Oil surged on the 11th night of Iran strikes: WTI settled at $87.90, up 3.52%, and Brent at $95.49, up 4.92%, their highest since early June, as the US strike campaign continued and threats to Red Sea shipping plus a fresh attack on the Caspian Pipeline terminal layered on premium. Energy was the best sector, but the market priced the shock as a tax on the median stock, with the Russell 2000 down 0.92% on higher yields and input-cost pressure.
• Semis carried a flat tape: Nvidia rose 2.30% to $212.06 on a new Texas assembly facility from partner Wistron, and without that push the S&P would have printed roughly 15 handles lower. The index finished essentially flat as the chip bid offset the oil drag, though Nvidia remains a striking laggard in a semiconductor index up more than 47% year to date.
• Alphabet beat but its capex guide spooked the tape: After the close Alphabet delivered Google Cloud revenue up 82% to $24.8B and Q2 capex of $44.9B, but shares fell as management raised the 2026 capex guide to $195B to $205B, roughly $15B above Street modeling. It is the third straight quarter a hyperscaler has walked capex higher, keeping the AI trade intact but the free-cash-flow clock ticking louder, while Tesla missed on margins with EPS of $0.33 against $0.55 despite record deliveries.
• Fed and tariffs frame the macro: With the July 29 FOMC a hold-and-signal meeting priced at 82% no change, the oil-driven inflation risk takes summer rate cuts off the table, and the administration’s new 50% tariffs on Canadian goods add a fresh cost shock. The VIX slipped to 16.64 even as Brent added 5%, a sign the vol market is treating the earnings-and-oil combination as two-sided rather than one-way pain.

OptionsPlay Trade Ideas: The Daily Brief

💰 The Income Generators (High Probability, Cash Flow)

• MU: Adding to our winning position as MU triggers a new bullish trend-following signal toward $1,250.
• DVN: Selling a put spread as DVN breaks out on strong relative strength toward $52.

🚀 The Growth Seekers (Higher Risk, Max Reward)

• No trades today for this category.

🛡️ The Portfolio Protectors (Hedges & Bearish Bets)

• No trades today for this category.

1. MU ($959.48): Adding to the Memory Winner

• We’re betting on: Micron is a maximum-relative-strength leader riding the memory upcycle with prices climbing on AI demand, and for MU to stay above $905 by expiration to capture the full credit.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the MU Aug 28, 2026 905/885 Put Vertical @ $9.17 Credit.
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN Aug 28, 2026 905 Put @ $91.20
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN Aug 28, 2026 885 Put @ $82.03
• Trade Metrics: POP: 51.51% | Collect $917 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $1,083 (1.18:1).
• The Setup: MU generated a new bullish trend-following signal after a pullback within its longer-term uptrend, now at $959.48 with relative strength at a maximum 10/10 and a $1,250 upside target, even as the 1-month trend reads mildly bearish after the recent surge. This adds to a winner we already own: our short Aug 21 940/900 put vertical from July 9 is up about 11% (+$223), and this fresh Aug 28 905/885 credit spread presses the same bullish thesis lower in the range. The setup is supported by this week’s memory tape, with Bank of America flagging climbing memory prices on AI infrastructure demand and Micron sitting at the center of the HBM upcycle. Note the large notional, with roughly $1,083 of risk per contract for a 1.18:1 payout. The 905/885 put vertical collects $917 against $1,083 of risk with a 51.51% probability of profit and a breakeven of $895.83, well below current support.
• Management:
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $18.34 (100% loss of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $4.59 (50% of max gain).

2. DVN ($44.88): Selling Puts Into the Energy Breakout

• We’re betting on: Devon Energy is a high-relative-strength energy name generating strong free cash flow into a rising oil tape, and for DVN to stay above $44 by expiration to capture the full credit.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the DVN Aug 28, 2026 44/42 Put Vertical @ $0.73 Credit.
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN Aug 28, 2026 44 Put @ $1.79
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN Aug 28, 2026 42 Put @ $1.06
• Trade Metrics: POP: 58.14% | Collect $73 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $127 (1.74:1).
• The Setup: DVN crossed above its 50-day moving average at $44.26 and triggered an early-breakout signal, now at $44.88 with relative strength at 9/10 and both the 1-month and 6-month trends bullish, targeting the $52 resistance. With crude surging on the Middle East conflict, energy is the market’s strongest sector and Devon is a leader within it. The fundamentals are solid: Q1 2026 free cash flow of $816M on oil production of 387,000 barrels per day, core EPS of $1.04, a completed $1 billion cost-savings program, and a commitment to return up to 70% of free cash flow through its dividend and an $8 billion buyback. The 44/42 put vertical collects $73 against $127 of risk with a 58.14% probability of profit and a breakeven of $43.27, just below the breakout.
• Management:
  • ⚠️ Warning: Earnings are scheduled for August 4, 2026, potentially requiring active monitoring around the event.
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $1.46 (100% loss of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $0.37 (50% of max gain).