DailyPlay – Opening Trade (TMUS) – July 09, 2025

TSLA Bearish Opening Trade Signal

Investment Rationale

Investment Thesis
T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS) presents an attractive bearish setup as it rallies within a broader downtrend, creating a potential opportunity to initiate bearish exposure with defined risk. Despite its modest growth profile, TMUS continues to trade at a substantial premium to peers, suggesting that recent strength could reverse if the market refocuses on its valuation concerns. With price action confirming technical weakness and fundamentals offering limited justification for its premium, the risk/reward favors positioning for downside continuation towards key support levels. Additionally, TMUS is scheduled to report earnings on Wednesday, July 23rd after market close, which may act as a potential catalyst for volatility in line with this bearish thesis.

Technical Analysis
TMUS has recently experienced a rally back into its $240 resistance area within a longer-term bearish trend, creating a favorable entry for trend-following shorts. Notably, today the stock crossed below its 200-day moving average at $236.08, reinforcing its medium-term technical weakness. The recent rejection near the declining 50-day moving average further confirms the bearish momentum, with the next major support sitting near $220. Relative strength remains middling, offering no evidence of bullish leadership, and instead aligning with the broader technical deterioration.

Fundamental Analysis
TMUS remains significantly overvalued relative to industry peers despite only moderately stronger growth expectations, suggesting limited fundamental support at current prices:

• Forward PE Ratio: 22.55x vs. Industry Median 10.03x
  
• Expected EPS Growth: 15.89% vs. Industry Median 5.56%
  
• Expected Revenue Growth: 5.21% vs. Industry Median 2.54%
  
• Net Margins: 14.41% vs. Industry Median 12.72%
  

Options Trade
A bearish put vertical is structured via buying the TMUS Aug 22, 2025 $240 put and selling the $210 put for a net debit of $8.93 ($893 total risk). The trade risks $893 to potentially gain $2,107 if TMUS closes below $210 at expiration.This setup results in a risk/reward ratio of approximately 1:2.4, meaning for every $1.00 of risk, the trade offers $2.40 of potential reward. This vertical spread limits risk to the premium paid, aligning with the technical breakdown, upcoming earnings catalyst, and overvaluation thesis while maintaining favorable capital efficiency.

TMUS – Daily

Trade Details

Strategy Details

Strategy: Long Put Vertical Spread

Direction: Bearish Debit Spread

Details: Buy to Open 2 TMUS Aug 22 $240/$210 Put Vertical Spreads @ $8.93 Debit per Contract.

Total Risk: This trade has a max risk of $1,786 (2 Contract x $893) based on a hypothetical $100k portfolio risking 2%. We suggest risking only 2% of the value of your portfolio and divide it by $893 to select the # contracts for your portfolio.

Trend Continuation Signal: This is a bearish trade on a stock that is expected to continue lower over the duration of this trade.

1M/6M Trends: Neutral/Bearish

Relative Strength: 6/10

OptionsPlay Score: 128

Stop Loss: @ $4.47 (50% loss of premium)

View TMUS Trade

Entering the Trade

Use the following details to enter the trade on your trading platform. Please note that whenever there is a multi-leg option strategy, it should be entered as a single trade. 

PLEASE NOTE that these prices are based on Tuesday’s closing prices. Should the underlying move significantly during the pre-market hours, we will likely adjust the strikes and prices to reflect a more accurate trade entry. 

View TMUS Trade