OptionsPlay DailyPlay Ideas Menu – August 11th, 2026

📊 What’s Driving The Market

• An oil squeeze masked a quiet index tape: The S&P finished essentially flat at 7,753.11 just below its record as WTI ripped 5.03% to $82.11 and Brent rose 4.94% to $87.68 after Iran hardened its Strait of Hormuz demands and a weekend drone strike hit a Saudi Aramco refinery. The supply-premium trade that had unwound in late July snapped back on, and small caps took the sharpest hit as yields and input costs rose together.
• Chips led the drag into CPI week: Nvidia fell 2.86% as investors trimmed into its August 26 earnings and Broadcom slipped 1.25% with the semi complex, pulling the Nasdaq down 0.32%. Mega-cap software offset the weakness, with Microsoft up 1.21%, Amazon up 1.32%, and Alphabet up 0.91% providing a defensive bid.
• Gold stacked a geopolitical and inflation hedge: Gold jumped 2.72% to a fresh $4,458.70 as haven demand layered on top of a CPI hedge, even with the dollar firmer and the 10-year up 4 basis points to 4.70%. The VIX bid 3.76% to 15.46 on hedging into the print rather than a genuine risk-off impulse.
• CPI is the week’s swing factor: July CPI lands Wednesday with PPI Thursday, consensus near 0.2% monthly and 2.9% year over year, and the market is pricing roughly a coin flip on a September Fed cut. A hotter core reading would push that cut into Q4 and, combined with oil back through $85, would reset the disinflation trajectory.

OptionsPlay Trade Ideas: The Daily Brief

💰 The Income Generators (High Probability, Cash Flow)

• AXON: Adding to our winning position as AXON bounces off support and triggers a bullish trend signal.
• BSX: Adding a third time to our BSX position as it clears $50 on strong volume.

🚀 The Growth Seekers (Higher Risk, Max Reward)

• No trades today for this category.

🛡️ The Portfolio Protectors (Hedges & Bearish Bets)

• CRWV: Buying a put spread into CoreWeave’s earnings tonight on a bearish signal toward $70.

1. AXON ($596.33): Adding to the Winner on the Bounce

• We’re betting on: Axon is a maximum-relative-strength public-safety leader reclaiming its uptrend off support, and for AXON to stay above $570 by expiration to capture the full credit.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the AXON Sep 18, 2026 570/550 Put Vertical @ $9.30 Credit.
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN Sep 18, 2026 570 Put @ $31.05
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN Sep 18, 2026 550 Put @ $21.75
• Trade Metrics: POP: 59.08% | Collect $930 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $1,070 (1.15:1).
• The Setup: AXON bounced off its 26-day EMA and $520 support area and triggered our bullish trend-following signal after a 9.29% move higher, now at $596.33 in a bullish 1-month and 6-month trend with relative strength at a maximum 10/10. This adds to a winner we already own: our short Aug 28 500/470 put vertical from July 28 is up about 75% (+$945), and this higher-strike Sep 18 570/550 credit spread presses the same bullish thesis. Axon remains a dominant public-safety and body-camera platform compounding subscription revenue at a premium multiple. Note the short strike sits about 4% below the current price on a $20-wide spread, so the risk-reward is a modest 1.15:1. The 570/550 put vertical collects $930 against $1,070 of risk with a 59.08% probability of profit and a breakeven of $560.70, below the current price.
• Management:
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $18.60 (100% loss of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $4.65 (50% of max gain).

2. BSX ($50.46): Pressing the Winner for the Home Run

• We’re betting on: Boston Scientific has confirmed its recovery breakout above $50, and for BSX to stay above $50 by expiration to capture the full credit.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the BSX Sep 25, 2026 50/47 Put Vertical @ $1.21 Credit.
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN Sep 25, 2026 50 Put @ $2.38
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN Sep 25, 2026 47 Put @ $1.17
• Trade Metrics: POP: 58.16% | Collect $121 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $179 (1.48:1).
• The Setup: BSX crossed above its $50 resistance on strong volume and triggered another early-breakout signal, now at $50.46 in a bullish 1-month trend, though relative strength is still just 2/10 off a deep base. This adds further to a winning series: our Aug 4 45/55 call vertical is up about 8% (+$165) and our original July put spread already reached max profit, and we are layering a third position to set up for a potential home run as the recovery extends. The stock has room to run after a roughly 31% three-month decline, with long-term drivers in stabilizing WATCHMAN growth and the pending $14.5 billion Penumbra acquisition. Note the short strike sits right at the money, so the risk-reward is a near-the-money 1.48:1. The 50/47 put vertical collects $121 against $179 of risk with a 58.16% probability of profit and a breakeven of $48.79, just below the current price.
• Management:
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $2.42 (100% loss of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $0.61 (50% of max gain).

3. CRWV ($88.19): Buying Downside Convexity Into Earnings

• We’re betting on: CoreWeave rejected its 50-day average with poor relative strength into an earnings print weighed down by a heavy debt and capex burden, and for CRWV to fall to $70 by expiration to capture the full spread.
• The Trade: Buy to Open the CRWV Aug 21, 2026 85/70 Put Vertical @ $4.42 Debit.
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN Aug 21, 2026 85 Put @ $5.30
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN Aug 21, 2026 70 Put @ $0.88
• Trade Metrics: POP: 37.41% | Pay $442 per contract vs. a Max Reward of $1,058 (2.39:1).
• The Setup: CRWV was rejected at its 50-day moving average at $88.19 with relative strength at just 3/10 in a bearish 6-month trend, and it reports earnings after the close tonight, triggering our bearish Earnings Navigator signal. With options relatively cheap at a 53 IV rank, we are buying downside convexity with a defined-risk put spread rather than shorting the stock. The fundamental setup is fragile: while Q2 revenue is expected to roughly double to $2.56B, CoreWeave carries a debt-to-equity ratio near 740%, full-year capex guidance of $31B to $35B, and quarterly interest expense of $650M to $730M, so any pause in demand makes the debt service crushing. The 85/70 put vertical costs $442 and pays up to $1,058 if CRWV falls to $70, a 2.39:1 payout on strictly defined risk, with a breakeven of $80.58 and maximum value at or below the $70 short strike by August expiration.
• Management:
  • ⚠️ Warning: Earnings are scheduled for August 11, 2026, potentially requiring active monitoring around the event.
  • Stop Loss: Sell the spread at $2.21 (50% loss on premium).
  • Take Profit: Sell the spread at $7.74 (75% gain on premium).