OptionsPlay DailyPlay Ideas Menu – April 13th, 2026

Strategist Corner: The Naval Blockade & Market Reset

A lot happened this weekend, and the market is violently repricing a new phase of escalation. Following 21 hours of marathon negotiations in Islamabad, Iran refused to yield on nuclear enrichment and demanded permanent control of the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Trump declared a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait, ordering the interdiction of any vessel paying a toll to Iran, effective 10 a.m. ET Monday.

The fallout is immediate: Brent crude surged 7% back above $100, European gas futures spiked 18%, and equities are sliding. The core question now is who can absorb more pain. The U.S. and its allies face $4+ gasoline, stranded Gulf oil, and a fragile global economy. Iran, crippled by decades of sanctions, is built for asymmetric standoffs and holds massive leverage with over 600 vessels currently stranded in the Gulf. With the UK and Australia opting out of the blockade and China reportedly supplying air-defense systems to Tehran, a protracted conflict seems highly likely. The energy trade is officially restarting, with forecasts violently swinging from a 1.6M bpd surplus to a 750K bpd deficit.

Updated Positioning:

• Back to Long Energy: The supply picture has completely reset. We favor oil services, pipelines, and LNG as the geopolitical premium gets permanently priced back in.
• Long Gold: The ultimate safe haven. The blockade increases geopolitical risk, compounding inflation damage limits the Fed’s ability to cut, and gold thrives in this exact environment.
• Shift Defensive Equities: Reduce risk and favor value/defensives like utilities and consumer staples. While our AI and tech names remain fundamentally strong, a $100+ oil environment threatens severe multiple compression. Be selective, not aggressive.
• Maintain Portfolio Hedges: If you didn’t add SPX or VIX protection during last week’s relief rally, do it now. The risk of further escalation is very real.
• Watching Private Credit: Every week this conflict persists, financial conditions tighten. Rising oil and elevated rates are exacerbating structural vulnerabilities in private credit markets.

💰 The Income Generators (High Probability, Cash Flow)

• LNG: Bullish Put Spread adding exposure to a previous winner as the naval blockade acts as a massive catalyst for energy.
• AVGO: Bullish Put Spread capturing a technical breakout in a top AI Semiconductor pick, deliberately isolated from oil price shocks.

🚀 The Growth Seekers (Higher Risk, Max Reward)

• (No trades in this category today)

🛡️ The Portfolio Protectors (Hedges & Bearish Bets)

• BX: Bearish Call Spread acting as a strategic hedge against the tightening financial conditions threatening the private credit sector.

1. LNG ($265.54) – Pressing the Energy Advantage

• We’re betting on: If the newly declared naval blockade continues to choke global energy supply and drive up liquefied natural gas demand, LNG will hold its bullish momentum and stay comfortably above our $265 strike.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the LNG May 29, 2026 265/245 Put Vertical @ $8.20 Credit.
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN May 29, 2026 245 Put @ $5.35
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN May 29, 2026 265 Put @ $13.55
• Trade Metrics: POP: 57.95% | Collect $820.00 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $1,180.00 (1.4:1).
• The Why: Cheniere Energy was one of our top ideas on March 16, and after capturing 67% of max gain on that setup, the naval blockade presents a perfect macro catalyst to reload and add exposure as global energy prices gap higher.
• The Technicals: Displaying strong Relative Strength (8/10) within a confirmed 6M Bullish Trend, the stock has established a solid support base near $259 and is primed for continuation as the macro backdrop severely restricts global energy supply.
• Management:
  • ⚠️ Warning: Earnings is scheduled for May 07, which may require active management.
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $16.40 (100% of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $4.10 (50% of max gain).

2. AVGO ($371.55) – The Insulated AI Breakout

• We’re betting on: If AI infrastructure spending remains a secular priority completely insulated from energy-driven macro shocks, AVGO will sustain its breakout trajectory above our $355 strike.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the AVGO May 29, 2026 355/335 Put Vertical @ $6.58 Credit.
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN May 29, 2026 335 Put @ $9.82
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN May 29, 2026 355 Put @ $16.40
• Trade Metrics: POP: 62.06% | Collect $658.00 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $1,342.00 (2.0:1).
• The Why: Featured on our AI Semiconductor Buy List, Broadcom offers a calculated way to maintain long equity exposure to secular growth themes that remain fundamentally disconnected from the price of oil.
• The Technicals: Mired in a powerful dual Bullish Trend (1M & 6M) with solid Relative Strength (8/10), the stock recently broke out decisively above its prior $350 resistance level, converting the $365 zone into a new, hardened support floor.
• Management:
  • ⚠️ Warning: Earnings is scheduled for Jun 03, which falls just after expiration, requiring no immediate adjustment but worth monitoring.
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $13.16 (100% of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $3.29 (50% of max gain).

3. BX ($114.83) – The Private Credit Contagion

• We’re betting on: If tightening financial conditions and a prolonged oil shock exacerbate structural risks within private credit, BX will fail to hold its recent bounce and remain suppressed below our $115 short call.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the BX May 29, 2026 115/128 Call Vertical @ $4.50 Credit.
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN May 29, 2026 115 Call @ $6.80
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN May 29, 2026 128 Call @ $2.30
• Trade Metrics: POP: 62.96% | Collect $450.00 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $850.00 (1.9:1).
• The Why: Directly tying into our Strategist Corner update, the extended geopolitical timeline guarantees higher-for-longer inflation and tighter credit conditions. Highlighted on our Private Credit Stagflation sell list, Blackstone’s exposure to opaque lending markets makes it highly vulnerable to multiple compression.
• The Technicals: Suffering from weak Relative Strength (3/10) within a primary 6M Bearish Trend, the stock triggered a trend-following sell signal as a brief counter-trend rally met heavy selling pressure near overhead resistance.
• Management:
  • ⚠️ Warning: Earnings is scheduled for Apr 23, which may require active management.
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $9.00 (100% of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $2.25 (50% of max gain).