DailyPlay – Opening Trade (RIVN) – October 31, 2025

RIVN Bearish Opening Trade Signal

Investment Rationale

Investment Thesis
Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) is set to report earnings on Tuesday, November 4, 2025, after the close, and the setup into the event remains distinctly bearish. Despite a modest delivery beat in the prior quarter, the reduction in full-year delivery guidance signals a more cautious management tone and suggests potential demand headwinds. A series of analyst downgrades and lower price targets in recent weeks have compounded the negative sentiment, with consensus expectations indicating limited upside into the print. Meanwhile, the combination of persistent losses, inventory drawdowns used to sustain deliveries, and the gradual expiration of industry incentives point toward continued structural challenges rather than improvement. Together, these factors suggest the upcoming report could act as a catalyst for renewed downside momentum.

Technical Analysis
The stock continues to exhibit technical deterioration, with price action confirming that bearish momentum remains intact following a brief rebound attempt. The breakdown below key moving averages highlights weakening structure, as shares now trade beneath their 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages. Notably, inside the OptionsPlay platform yesterday, a “CCI Rally in Bearish Trend” alert was generated, signaling a short-term momentum bounce within a broader downtrend, often a precursor to renewed selling pressure once the relief rally fades. With both the 1-month and 6-month trends turning negative, the technical landscape remains aligned with a sustained bearish bias into earnings.

Fundamental Analysis
Rivian’s fundamentals continue to reflect margin compression, rising costs, and limited operating efficiency despite strong top-line expansion. The narrowed delivery outlook and heavy dependence on inventory reductions underscore imbalance between production and end-market demand. Investor confidence has weakened amid persistent losses and valuation compression risks within the EV sector. The data below highlights the company’s ongoing profitability concerns relative to peers:

• Forward PE Ratio: -4.84x vs. Industry Median 10.65x
• Expected EPS Growth: 19.06% vs. Industry Median 9.70%
• Expected Revenue Growth: 32.58% vs. Industry Median 3.57%
• Net Margins: -69.87% vs. Industry Median 2.92%

These metrics reinforce the warning that, while growth remains elevated, profitability metrics remain negative and unsustainable without a major cost structure improvement.

Options Trade
A practical bearish approach is to purchase the RIVN Dec 5, 2025 $14 Put, currently priced around $1.71. This trade provides straightforward downside exposure with clearly defined risk both into and after the earnings release. The maximum loss is capped at the $171 premium per contract, while the position offers meaningful upside potential if the stock continues to weaken. The structure also allows flexibility, traders can capture gains ahead of earnings if selling pressure builds, or maintain the position through the report should bearish momentum and sentiment persist.

RIVN – Daily

Trade Details

Strategy Details

Strategy: Long Put

Direction: Bearish Put

Details: Buy to Open 11 RIVN Dec 05 $14 Puts @ $1.71 Debit per Contract.

Total Risk: This trade has a max risk of $1,881 (11 Contracts x $171) based on a hypothetical $100k portfolio risking 2%. We suggest risking only 2% of the value of your portfolio and divide it by $171 to select the # contracts for your portfolio.

Trend Continuation Signal: This is a bearish trade on a stock that is expected to continue lower over the duration of this trade.

1M/6M Trends: Bearish/Bearish

Relative Strength: 2/10

OptionsPlay Score: 104

Stop Loss: @ $0.86 (50% loss of premium)

View RIVN Trade

Entering the Trade

Use the following details to enter the trade on your trading platform. Please note that whenever there is a multi-leg option strategy, it should be entered as a single trade. 

PLEASE NOTE that these prices are based on Thursday’s closing prices. Should the underlying move significantly during the pre-market hours, we will likely adjust the strikes and prices to reflect a more accurate trade entry. 

View RIVN Trade