OptionsPlay DailyPlay Ideas Menu – July 9th, 2026

📊 What’s Driving The Market

• Iran shock drove oil and split the tape: President Trump declared the Iran ceasefire “over” and confirmed fresh US strikes, sending WTI up 4.4% to $73.52 and Brent up 5.2% to $78.02, their highest levels since mid-June. The Dow fell 586 points (1.11%) to 52,339 in its worst session in three weeks, while the S&P 500 dipped 0.28% and breadth stayed poor.
• Textbook oil-shock rotation: Energy led with Chevron up 3.5% and ExxonMobil up 3.9% (the sector rose roughly 2.5%), while airlines, homebuilders, and REITs sold off on jet-fuel repricing and the initial move higher in rates. Financials were mixed as the FOMC minutes reinforced a higher-for-longer bias.
• Semis rescued the Nasdaq: Broadcom rallied 4.8% on an expanded Apple US-components agreement and Nvidia jumped 3.6% on reports of stronger Chinese H200 demand, lifting the SOX more than 200 basis points past the S&P and pushing the Nasdaq to a 0.20% gain. Micron and AMD saw only muted bounces.
• Hawkish Fed minutes, CPI ahead: The June FOMC minutes showed several officials open to another hike if inflation fails to abate, lifting CME hike odds for July to 19.4%, up roughly 500 basis points on the week. June CPI on July 14 is the swing event, with rebuilt oil prices adding upside gasoline risk.

OptionsPlay Trade Ideas: The Daily Brief

💰 The Income Generators (High Probability, Cash Flow)

• EBAY: Pressing our winning position with a higher-strike put spread as EBAY breaks above $112 toward $120.
• MU: Selling a put spread to add upside exposure after MU’s pullback triggers a new trend-following buy signal.

🚀 The Growth Seekers (Higher Risk, Max Reward)

• No trades today for this category.

🛡️ The Portfolio Protectors (Hedges & Bearish Bets)

• No trades today for this category.

1. EBAY ($115.25): Pressing the Winner Toward $120

• We’re betting on: eBay is compounding 19% revenue growth on its advertising and AI-listing momentum, and for EBAY to stay above $115 by expiration to capture the full credit.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the EBAY Aug 21, 2026 115/105 Put Vertical @ $3.67 Credit.
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN Aug 21, 2026 115 Put @ $6.40
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN Aug 21, 2026 105 Put @ $2.73
• Trade Metrics: POP: 56.15% | Collect $367 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $633 (1.72:1).
• The Setup: EBAY generated a fresh early-breakout signal and broke above its $112 resistance toward a $120 upside target, now trading at $115.25 with relative strength at 9/10 and both the 1-month and 6-month trends bullish. This presses a winner we already own: our short Aug 21 110/100 put vertical from July 1 is up about 24% (+$255), and rolling the strikes up to 115/105 adds fresh premium as the breakout extends. The fundamental story is strong: Q1 2026 revenue rose 19% year over year to $3.09B with non-GAAP EPS up 21% to $1.66, GMV up 18%, and an advertising segment now near 20% of revenue and growing over 31%, while AI-powered listing tools lifted new US listings more than 50%. The 115/105 put vertical collects $367 against $633 of risk with a 56.15% probability of profit and a breakeven of $111.33, just below the reclaimed $112 breakout level.
• Management:
  • ⚠️ Warning: Earnings are scheduled for July 29, 2026, potentially requiring active monitoring around the event.
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $7.34 (100% loss of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $1.84 (50% of max gain).

2. MU ($948.80): Selling Puts Into the Buy Signal

• We’re betting on: Micron’s sold-out HBM capacity and AI-memory demand underpin a longer-term bullish trend, and for MU to stay above $940 by expiration to capture the full credit.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the MU Aug 21, 2026 940/900 Put Vertical @ $19.88 Credit.
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN Aug 21, 2026 940 Put @ $118.58
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN Aug 21, 2026 900 Put @ $98.70
• Trade Metrics: POP: 46.20% | Collect $1,988 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $2,012 (1.01:1).
• The Setup: MU pulled back below its 26-day EMA and generated a new trend-following buy signal, now at $948.80 with relative strength at a maximum 10/10 and a bullish 6-month trend even as the 1-month reads mildly bearish after the recent gap down. With semis starting to look more compelling on a risk-reward basis after the pullback, we are selling a put spread to take defined-risk upside exposure rather than chasing the stock outright. The fundamental backdrop is strong: Micron has sold out its HBM capacity through 2026 with purchase orders extending into 2027 and 2028, plus a supply agreement to provide memory and storage for Anthropic’s next-generation AI models, keeping analyst support firmly bullish. The 940/900 put vertical collects $1,988 against $2,012 of risk with a 46.20% probability of profit and a breakeven of $920.12, roughly 3% below the current price, and the near-the-money short strike makes this an aggressive, higher-conviction income trade.
• Management:
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $39.76 (100% loss of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $9.94 (50% of max gain).