DailyPlay Portfolio Review

Our Trades

FDX – 32 DTE

Bullish Credit Spread – FedEx Corp (FDX) – We recently established this position, currently have a gain, and plan to stay the course for now.

META – 199 DTE

Bullish Long Call – Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) – The short-lived market dip and META’s pullback have created a favorable setup for a longer-term bullish approach. We currently have a gain in the position and intend to maintain it for now, and will look for an opportunity to sell a short-term call against the longer-dated call to lower the cost basis of the long call.

PM – 18 DTE

Bearish Credit Spread – Philip Morris (PM) – The stock remains in a consolidation phase. With expiration approaching and the position currently at a loss, we will likely close the trade unless a bearish trend emerges early next week.

Closing Trade

• NVDA – 89% loss: Buy to Close 3 Contracts (or 100% of your Contracts) Dec 12 $190/$180 Put Vertical Spreads @ $7.18 Debit. DailyPlay Portfolio:  By Closing 3 Contracts, we will be paying $2,154. We initially opened these 3 contracts on November 12 @ $3.79 Credit. Our loss, therefore, is $339 per contract.

Closing Trade

• LMT – 110% loss: Buy to Close 2 Contracts (or 100% of your Contracts) Dec 05 $485/$470 Put Vertical Spreads @ $14.10 Debit. DailyPlay Portfolio:  By Closing 2 Contracts, we will be paying $2,820. We initially opened these 2 contracts on October 28 @ $6.70 Credit. Our loss, therefore, is $740 per contract.

FDX Bullish Opening Trade Signal

Investment Rationale

Investment Thesis
FedEx (FDX) continues to demonstrate improving momentum supported by stabilizing demand trends and favorable sector dynamics. With shares breaking out and sentiment strengthening, the stock appears positioned for continued appreciation into 2025. The combination of modest valuation, steady forward growth expectations, and firm price action supports a bullish directional view with a preference for strategies that take advantage of elevated premium levels and defined risk.

Technical Analysis
After FDX broke above the key $250 resistance area at the beginning of November, the stock has built strong upside momentum. The 50-day moving average has crossed above the 200-day (a golden cross), and the stock is now trading above the 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages, signaling a healthy uptrend with broad participation.

Fundamental Analysis
FDX trades at a discount to peers despite maintaining growth and profitability metrics that largely align with industry norms. While margins remain below peak levels, the company has made visible progress in cost efficiency, creating a path for improved operating performance if volume trends continue to recover. This valuation gap offers potential for multiple expansion should execution stay on track.

• Forward PE Ratio: 14.90x vs. Industry Median 18.87x
• Expected EPS Growth: 9.27% vs. Industry Median 10.85%
• Expected Revenue Growth: 4.02% vs. Industry Median 4.05%
• Net Margins: 4.65% vs. Industry Median 5.20%

Options Trade
To express a bullish view with defined risk, consider selling the Jan 2, 2026 265/255 put vertical for a credit of approximately $4.07. This spread brings in $4.07 in premium against a maximum potential loss of $5.93, resulting in a solid risk-reward ratio of roughly 1.46:1 for a neutral-to-bullish trade. The position benefits from FDX remaining above $265 at expiration, with exposure limited and defined.

FDX – Daily

Trade Details

Strategy Details

Strategy: Short Put Vertical Spread

Direction: Bullish Credit Spread

Details: Sell to Open 3 FDX Jan 02 $265/$255 Put Vertical Spreads @ $4.07 Credit per Contract.

Total Risk: This trade has a max risk of $1,779 (3 Contracts x $593) based on a hypothetical $100k portfolio risking 2%. We suggest risking only 2% of the value of your portfolio and divide it by $593 to select the # contracts for your portfolio.

Trend Continuation Signal: This is a bullish trade on a stock that is expected to continue higher over the duration of this trade.

1M/6M Trends: Bullish/Bullish

Relative Strength: 9/10

OptionsPlay Score: 93

Stop Loss: @ $8.14 (100% loss to value of premium)

View FDX Trade

Entering the Trade

Use the following details to enter the trade on your trading platform. Please note that whenever there is a multi-leg option strategy, it should be entered as a single trade. 

PLEASE NOTE that these prices are based on Monday’s closing prices. Should the underlying move significantly during the pre-market hours, we will likely adjust the strikes and prices to reflect a more accurate trade entry. 

View FDX Trade

DailyPlay Portfolio Review

Our Trades

LMT – 11 DTE

Bullish Credit Spread – Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) – The US government shutdown had weighed on LMT by slowing defense contracts and budget processes, but following its resolution the stock began to strengthen. Recent market weakness, however, has stalled that momentum. We plan to hold the position, anticipating a potential rebound, yet with expiration fast approaching, we will likely need to exit early in the week unless the stock recovers quickly.

META – 206 DTE

Bullish Long Call, Meta Platforms, Inc. (META), the market dip and META’s pullback provided a favorable setup for a longer term bullish approach. We recently established the position and intend to maintain it for now.

NVDA – 18 DTE

Bullish Credit Spread – NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) – The company delivered a very strong earnings report and raised guidance. After an initial move higher, the stock reversed as the market chose to sell off. With plenty of time until expiration, we plan to maintain the position for now.

PM – 25 DTE

Bearish Credit Spread – Philip Morris (PM) – our outlook remains bearish as transition growth slows, margins compress, and regulations tighten. The recent rally bumped against the 50-day moving average and then retreated, pointing to a potential near-term pullback. We will maintain the position in the short term with ample time until expiration.

Closing Trade

• WMT – 65% loss: Sell to Close 15 Contracts (or 100% of your Contracts) Dec 19 $100/$95 Put Vertical Spreads @ $0.46 Credit. DailyPlay Portfolio:  By Closing 15 Contracts, we will be collecting $690. We initially opened these 15 contracts on November 18 @ $1.32 Debit. Our loss, therefore, is $86 per contract.

META Bullish Opening Trade Signal

Investment Rationale

Investment Thesis
Meta Platforms’ recent pullback appears to stem not from weakening fundamentals, but from the company’s updated 2025 capital-expenditure outlook, which introduced near-term uncertainty around the monetization timeline of its AI investments. Management’s decision to substantially increase spending on AI infrastructure has weighed on valuation as investors reassess the short-term return profile, even though the long-term rationale and competitive positioning remain compelling. Meta still benefits from a resilient advertising engine, strong cash-flow generation, and expanding capabilities across AI-driven engagement and automation. With analysts continuing to project meaningful upside and maintaining consensus price targets well above current levels, this dislocation offers an opportunity to position for long-term strength despite near-term sentiment pressure tied to elevated spending.

Technical Analysis
META recently surged above its previous $720 resistance level before reversing sharply, retesting key support and driving the stock into oversold territory, with RSI dropping into the low 20s. While short-term downside momentum remains a concern and the broader trend retains a bearish bias, highlighted by the 20-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average and the 50-day moving average turning lower, the stock is showing early signs of consolidation. Supporting this view, OptionsPlay has triggered a Bullish Counter-Trend Alert, suggesting that although near-term weakness persists, META may be stabilizing. Such alerts typically signal a slowdown in selling pressure and cautious re-entry by buyers, creating a potentially more favorable risk/reward setup for selectively timed, long-dated bullish positions.

Fundamental Analysis
Meta maintains attractive long-term fundamentals supported by strong operating leverage, durable growth, and industry-leading profitability. Despite elevated AI-related capex, the company remains well-positioned to monetize new capabilities over the coming years.

• Forward PE Ratio: 19.69x vs. Industry Median 24.26x
• Expected EPS Growth: 12.79% vs. Industry Median 14.57%
• Expected Revenue Growth: 18.15% vs. Industry Median 14.85%
• Net Margins: 30.89% vs. Industry Median 8.85%
  

Options Trade
To express a bullish long-term view on META, consider buying a deep-in-the-money call option with a delta near 0.80 as a substitute for owning 100 shares of stock. The META Jun 18, 2026 490 Call, currently priced around $136.20, offers ample time for the anticipated trend reversal to unfold while providing leveraged upside should META reclaim prior highs and resume its longer-term uptrend. The maximum risk is capped at the $13,620 premium paid, while upside remains unlimited until expiry. The extended 209-day duration supports the substitute-stock approach, though it comes at a higher cost compared with the shorter-term strategies typically used in Daily Plays.

META – Daily

Trade Details

Strategy: Long Call

Direction: Bullish Call

Details: Buy to Open 1 META Jun 18 $490 Call @ $136.20 Debit per Contract.

Total Risk: This trade has a max risk of $13,620 (1 Contract x $13,620) roughly 23% of buying 100 shares of META. We suggest using this longer dated call option as a more capital efficient way to capture upside using options. 

Counter-Trend Signal: This is a bullish trade on a stock that is expected to continue higher over the duration of this trade.

1M/6M Trends: Bearish/Bearish

Relative Strength: 2/10

OptionsPlay Score: 77

Stop Loss: If META is below $490 (strike price) close the trade. 

View META Trade

Entering the Trade

Use the following details to enter the trade on your trading platform. Please note that whenever there is a multi-leg option strategy, it should be entered as a single trade. 

PLEASE NOTE that these prices are based on Thursday’s closing prices. Should the underlying move significantly during the pre-market hours, we will likely adjust the strikes and prices to reflect a more accurate trade entry. 

View META Trade

Closing Trade

• AFRM – 53% gain: Buy to Close 3 Contracts (or 100% of your Contracts) Dec 26 $74/$84 Call Vertical Spreads @ $1.65 Debit. DailyPlay Portfolio:  By Closing 3 Contracts, we will be paying $495. We initially opened these 3 contracts on November 14 @ $3.50 Credit. Our gain, therefore, is $555.

Closing Trade

• SCHW – 40% loss: Sell to Close 1 Contract (or 100% of your Contracts) Nov 28/Jan 16 $87.50/$100 Call Diagonal Spreads @ $7.62 Credit. DailyPlay Portfolio:  By Closing 1 Contract, we will be collecting $762. We initially opened this contract on July 31 @ $14.50 Debit and reduced our cost basis to $1,272. Our loss, therefore, is $510 per contract.

WMT Bearish Opening Trade Signal

Investment Rationale

Investment Thesis
Walmart Inc. is set to report earnings this Thursday, November 20, before the open, and the setup into the announcement skews negatively based on valuation and positioning. As noted in the Earnings Navigator section of this week’s trade ideas research report, Walmart is highlighted as Significantly Overvalued, leaving the stock exposed if results or guidance do not justify the current premium. With shares pricing in a high multiple relative to industry norms, the stock appears vulnerable to downside repricing as investors reassess growth durability and margin progression.

Technical Analysis
WMT continues to struggle for upside traction, with shares unable to hold above the short-term moving averages and drifting within a choppy consolidation range. The recent cross of the 20-day moving average below the 50-day moving average underscores a weakening momentum backdrop and signals building downside pressure. The 100 level has acted as support on five separate occasions since early October, yet each successive test has shown diminishing resilience. A clean break below 100 would likely confirm a transition into a more sustained bearish trend.

Fundamental Analysis
From a valuation and growth perspective, Walmart’s current premium leaves little room for disappointment. The stock trades well above sector norms, while its growth metrics are broadly in line with peers, limiting justification for the elevated multiple. Key comparative metrics include:

• Forward PE Ratio: 36.23x vs. Industry Median 17.96x
• Expected EPS Growth: 8.99% vs. Industry Median 9.02%
• Expected Revenue Growth: 4.19% vs. Industry Median 4.98%
• Net Margins: 2.75% vs. Industry Median 2.36%

Options Trade
A bearish, defined-risk approach would be to initiate the WMT December 19, 2025 100/95 bear put vertical for a debit of roughly $1.32. This spread pairs a long 100 strike put with a short 95 strike put, forming a $5 wide spread. The maximum risk is limited to the $1.32 premium paid, while the maximum reward is $3.68 if WMT finishes at or below 95 at expiration. This creates a reward-to-risk ratio of approximately 2.8 to 1. The trade is designed to capitalize on a move lower into or following earnings and aligns with the broader bearish setup.

WMT – Daily

Trade Details

Strategy Details

Strategy: Long Put Vertical Spread

Direction: Bearish Debit Spread

Details: Buy to Open 15 WMT Dec 19 $100/$95 Put Vertical Spreads @ $1.32 Debit per Contract.

Total Risk: This trade has a max risk of $1,980 (15 Contracts x $132) based on a hypothetical $100k portfolio risking 2%. We suggest risking only 2% of the value of your portfolio and divide it by $132 to select the # contracts for your portfolio.

Trend Continuation Signal: This is a bearish trade on a stock that is expected to continue lower over the duration of this trade.

1M/6M Trends: Bearish/Neutral

Relative Strength: 5/10

OptionsPlay Score: 125

Stop Loss: @ $0.66 (50% loss of premium)

View WMT Trade

Entering the Trade

Use the following details to enter the trade on your trading platform. Please note that whenever there is a multi-leg option strategy, it should be entered as a single trade. 

PLEASE NOTE that these prices are based on Monday’s closing prices. Should the underlying move significantly during the pre-market hours, we will likely adjust the strikes and prices to reflect a more accurate trade entry. 

View WMT Trade

DailyPlay Portfolio Review

Our Trades

AFRM – 39 DTE

Bearish Credit Spread – Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM) – We recently established this position and plan to maintain it for now. Affirm reported solid Q3 results, with a beat on the top and bottom line, which helped move the stock higher initially. However, valuation remains a concern, as the stock trades at a high price-to-earnings ratio of 108.45x, raising questions about the durability of its long-term growth expectations.

LMT – 18 DTE

Bullish Credit Spread – Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) – This position gave up its recent gains following the company’s strong earnings report. The primary driver had been concerns over the US government shutdown, the longest in history, which led to delays in defense contracts, budget approvals, and payments for contractors like LMT. With the shutdown now over, the stock is building upside momentum, and we plan to hold the position, expecting that LMT could continue to rebound, though there is still some risk with expiration nearing.

NVDA – 25 DTE

Bullish Credit Spread – NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) – We recently established this position and plan to maintain it for now. The company is set to report earnings on Wednesday, November 19, after the close.

PM – 32 DTE

Bearish Credit Spread – Philip Morris (PM) – our outlook remains bearish as transition growth slows, margins compress, and regulations tighten. The recent rally bumped against the 50-day moving average and then retreated, pointing to a potential near-term pullback. We will maintain the position in the short term with ample time until expiration.

SCHW – 11 DTE & 60 DTE

Bullish Diagonal Debit Spread – Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW) – We remain bullish on the stock. After realizing gains on our initial long call, we rolled into a higher strike with a longer expiration and later sold a short-term out-of-the-money call to lower our cost basis. The short option’s expiration is approaching.

AFRM Bearish Opening Trade Signal

Investment Rationale

Investment Thesis
Affirm Holdings faces mounting pressure as the macro backdrop for consumer credit weakens, creating a challenging environment for high-growth, high-valuation lenders. Rising delinquency rates, tightening household balance sheets, and persistent high interest costs heighten the risk that Affirm’s growth trajectory slows meaningfully from current levels. With the stock trading at a premium multiple despite decelerating fundamentals, the setup favors a bearish stance as the market reassesses forward expectations.

Technical Analysis
Price action reinforces the downside narrative, as AFRM continues to fail at the 50-day moving average. The stock has tested this level three times since October without breaking through, reflecting weakening momentum. This repeated rejection suggests growing vulnerability to a move toward the lower end of its multi-month range, possibly toward the 200-day moving average.

Fundamental Analysis
Despite strong headline growth metrics, AFRM’s valuation remains stretched relative to its industry, leaving little margin for error as credit conditions deteriorate. The company’s elevated forward earnings multiple and subpar profitability raise concerns about its ability to navigate a slowing consumer backdrop. Paired with rising delinquency trends and a higher cost of capital environment, AFRM’s risk-reward profile skews negative.

• Forward PE Ratio: 86.92x vs. Industry Median 23.37x
• Expected EPS Growth: 137.15% vs. Industry Median 12.25%
• Expected Revenue Growth: 23.95% vs. Industry Median 9.40%
• Net Margins: 6.74% vs. Industry Median 8.65%

Options Trade
A defined-risk bearish position is structured through the December 26, 2025, 74/84 call credit spread, sold for a $3.50 credit. The spread offers a $6.50 maximum loss, creating a reward-to-risk ratio of 1:1.86. The trade benefits if AFRM remains below the $74 strike. Elevated option premiums, supported by high implied volatility, make selling call spreads appealing at these levels.

AFRM – Daily

Trade Details

Strategy Details

Strategy: Short Call Vertical Spread

Direction: Bearish Credit Spread

Details: Sell to Open 3 AFRM Dec 26 $74/$84 Call Vertical Spreads @ $3.50 Credit per Contract.

Total Risk: This trade has a max risk of $1,950 (3 Contracts x $650) based on a hypothetical $100k portfolio risking 2%. We suggest risking only 2% of the value of your portfolio and divide it by $650 to select the # contracts for your portfolio.

Trend Continuation Signal: This is a bearish trade on a stock that is expected to continue lower over the duration of this trade.

1M/6M Trends: Neutral/Neutral

Relative Strength: 9/10

OptionsPlay Score: 100

Stop Loss: @ $7.00 (100% loss to value of premium)

View AFRM Trade

Entering the Trade

Use the following details to enter the trade on your trading platform. Please note that whenever there is a multi-leg option strategy, it should be entered as a single trade. 

PLEASE NOTE that these prices are based on Thursday’s closing prices. Should the underlying move significantly during the pre-market hours, we will likely adjust the strikes and prices to reflect a more accurate trade entry. 

View AFRM Trade