Strategies Corner: Record Highs & Ceasefire Hopes

US equity markets are closing out the week with historic momentum. The S&P 500 has officially broken through the 7,000 milestone to post a new all-time closing high, while the Nasdaq Composite notched its 12th consecutive gain—its longest winning streak since July 2009. The rally has broadened significantly, with the Russell 2000 securing its first record close since January.

Two primary drivers are fueling this risk-on environment. First, President Trump announced a 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, offering the most concrete de-escalation step in weeks and raising hopes for a broader US-Iran framework. While a comprehensive deal could still take six months to finalize, the immediate relief on oil prices and geopolitical anxiety has been palpable. Second, the macroeconomic data remains extraordinarily resilient. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index delivered a blowout print of 26.7 (crushing estimates of 10.3), and TSMC’s 58% Q1 profit surge confirmed that the “extremely robust” AI capex cycle is alive and well.

However, risks remain beneath the surface. National gas prices have crossed $4.00 for the first time in four years, and the Philly Fed’s price indexes rose for a second consecutive month. With the labor market still tight (jobless claims at 207K), the Federal Reserve is overwhelmingly expected to hold rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% during the upcoming April 29-30 FOMC meeting. The market will be hyper-focused on Chair Powell’s press conference to see how the Fed balances this sticky inflation against the surging equity wealth effect.

💰 The Income Generators (High Probability, Cash Flow)

• LIN: Bullish Put Spread fading a short-term momentum dip for a top pick on our Equity Research List.
• AMAT: Bullish Put Spread capitalizing on a CCI bull dip to re-enter a proven winner from our Semiconductor Watchlist.

🚀 The Growth Seekers (Higher Risk, Max Reward)

• GOOGL: Long Call Spread targeting a post-earnings range expansion and breakout toward $360.

🛡️ The Portfolio Protectors (Hedges & Bearish Bets)

• (No trades in this category today)

1. LIN ($499.22) – Buying the Industrial Dip

• We’re betting on: If the broader industrial and manufacturing sectors continue their rebound and LIN recovers from this short-term technical dip, the stock will easily maintain support above our $495 strike.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the LIN May 15, 2026 495/480 Put Vertical @ $5.00 Credit.
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN May 15, 2026 480 Put @ $6.30
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN May 15, 2026 495 Put @ $11.30
• Trade Metrics: POP: 59.44% | Collect $500.00 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $1,000.00 (2.0:1).
• The Why: Highlighted on our Equity Research List, Linde Plc provides critical industrial gases and engineering. With the Philly Fed manufacturing index showing a massive, unexpected acceleration, industrial stalwarts like LIN are primed to benefit from a renewed manufacturing expansion.
• The Technicals: Displaying solid Relative Strength (7/10) within a confirmed Bullish Trend (1M & 6M), the stock recently experienced a CCI dip and is testing its 50-day moving average near $490, offering a high-probability mean-reversion setup with overhead resistance at $509.
• Management:
  • ⚠️ Warning: Earnings is scheduled for May 01, which may require active management.
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $10.00 (100% of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $2.50 (50% of max gain).

2. AMAT ($389.90) – Returning to the Semi Well 

• We’re betting on: If the robust AI capex cycle drives continued demand for wafer fabrication equipment, AMAT will bounce from its current consolidation zone and stay safely above our $380 strike through late May.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the AMAT May 29, 2026 380/360 Put Vertical @ $7.83 Credit.
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN May 29, 2026 360 Put @ $16.50
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN May 29, 2026 380 Put @ $24.33
• Trade Metrics: POP: 55.00% | Collect $783.00 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $1,217.00 (1.6:1).
• The Why: Following an incredibly strong TSMC earnings report that confirmed massive ongoing demand for advanced semiconductor technologies, equipment providers like Applied Materials (a key name on our Semiconductor Watchlist) offer a high-conviction way to trade the infrastructure layer of the AI boom.
• The Technicals: Maintaining maximum Relative Strength (10/10) within a powerful 6M Bullish Trend, the stock has experienced a short-term CCI pullback to its $382 support floor, presenting a fantastic opportunity to re-enter a historically successful trade.
• Management:
  • ⚠️ Warning: Earnings is scheduled for May 14, which may require active management.
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $15.66 (100% of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $3.92 (50% of max gain).

3. GOOGL ($336.02) – Expanding the Tech Range

• We’re betting on: If Alphabet delivers a strong earnings report that acts as a catalyst to break overhead resistance, the stock will confirm a bullish range expansion and surge toward $360.
• The Trade: Buy to Open the GOOGL May 15, 2026 335/370 Call Vertical @ $11.07 Debit.
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN May 15, 2026 335 Call @ $14.60
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN May 15, 2026 370 Call @ $3.53
• Trade Metrics: POP: 36.59% | Pay $1,107.00 per contract vs. a Max Reward of $2,393.00 (2.2:1).
• The Why: Featured prominently on our Strong Stocks list, Alphabet holds significant momentum heading into earnings. The broader tech rally and stabilizing advertising revenues provide a highly favorable backdrop for a potential beat-and-raise scenario that triggers a breakout.
• The Technicals: Supported by maximum Relative Strength (10/10) within a 1M and 6M Bullish trend, the stock is pressing against its $349 resistance ceiling. A successful break above this level confirms a major range expansion to the upside.
• Management:
  • ⚠️ Warning: Earnings is scheduled for Apr 29, which may require active management.
  • Stop Loss: Sell the spread at $5.54 (50% loss on premium).
  • Take Profit: Sell the spread at $19.37 (75% gain on premium).

💰 The Income Generators (High Probability, Cash Flow)

• APH: Bullish Put Spread capitalizing on hyper-growth in AI infrastructure and mission-critical components.
• COP: Bullish Put Spread leveraging geopolitical energy tailwinds flagged on our Iran Watchlist.

🚀 The Growth Seekers (Higher Risk, Max Reward)

• (No trades in this category today)

🛡️ The Portfolio Protectors (Hedges & Bearish Bets)

• QQQ: Bearish Call Spread acting as a strategic hedge against an overextended tech rally hitting major resistance.

1. APH ($146.98) – The AI Picks and Shovels

• We’re betting on: If hyperscalers continue accelerating data center expansion, APH’s durable pricing power will hold the stock above our $140 strike, allowing us to capture max premium.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the APH May 15, 2026 140/135 Put Vertical @ $1.70 Credit.
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN May 15, 2026 135 Put @ $4.95
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN May 15, 2026 140 Put @ $6.65
• Trade Metrics: POP: 60.07% | Collect $170.00 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $330.00 (1.9:1).
• The Why: Every AI rack built around Nvidia GPUs depends on thousands of high-speed connectors, and Amphenol supplies them at scale. The IT Datacom segment grew 124% in 2025, now accounting for 36% of revenue. With official Nvidia alignment and exposure to the next-gen Rubin platform, APH sits squarely at the center of the AI infrastructure boom.
• The Technicals: Displaying strong Relative Strength (9/10) within a confirmed Bullish Trend (1M & 6M), the stock is currently riding a bullish wave above its $120 support floor with room to push past its $156 resistance.
• Management:
  • ⚠️ Warning: Earnings is scheduled for Apr 29, which may require active management.
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $3.40 (100% of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $0.85 (50% of max gain).

2. COP ($118.92) – Riding the Iran Watchlist

• We’re betting on: If the current geopolitical environment continues to support elevated energy prices, COP will bounce from its short-term pullback and stay comfortably above our $118 short put strike.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the COP May 29, 2026 118/111 Put Vertical @ $2.69 Credit.
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN May 29, 2026 111 Put @ $2.34
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN May 29, 2026 118 Put @ $5.03
• Trade Metrics: POP: 58.28% | Collect $269.00 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $431.00 (1.6:1).
• The Why: Highlighted on our Iran Watchlist, ConocoPhillips provides a strategic avenue to capitalize on geopolitical tensions supporting domestic energy producers and elevated oil markets.
• The Technicals: The stock is experiencing a mildly bearish 1M pullback but remains in a dominant 6M Bullish trend with high Relative Strength (9/10). It is currently searching for a floor near the $114 structural support zone.
• Management:
  • ⚠️ Warning: Earnings is scheduled for Apr 30, which may require active management.
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $5.38 (100% of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $1.35 (50% of max gain).

3. QQQ ($637.40) – Fading the Tech Ceiling

• We’re betting on: If the broader tech rally experiences exhaustion near near-term highs, QQQ will fail to break through major overhead resistance, keeping the index below $640 and allowing this spread to expire worthless.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the QQQ May 29, 2026 640/660 Call Vertical @ $9.51 Credit.
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN May 29, 2026 640 Call @ $17.25
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN May 29, 2026 660 Call @ $7.74
• Trade Metrics: POP: 60.77% | Collect $951.00 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $1,049.00 (1.1:1).
• The Why: Selling call credit spreads provides a low-risk, high-probability hedge against potential exhaustion in the broader tech index, allowing us to generate income while protecting against a potential market rollover.
• The Technicals: While the ETF remains in a strong Bullish Trend (1M & 6M), it is currently testing significant overhead resistance near the $638 level. A failure to break this ceiling presents a high-probability selling opportunity.
• Management:
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $19.02 (100% of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $4.76 (50% of max gain).

Strategies Corner: Looking Past the War

The market narrative has rapidly flipped since the weekend, with the S&P 500 erasing all war-related losses to turn positive for 2026—now sitting within 1% of its 52-week high after an 8.1% surge from the March 27th lows. Monday’s blockade initially triggered a 400-point drop in the Dow, but comments regarding active negotiations swiftly reversed sentiment, indicating the market views the blockade as a negotiating tactic rather than a severe escalation.

The critical catalyst arrived with the March PPI print. Despite $100+ oil, headline PPI came in at just +0.5% (versus the 1.1% consensus), and core PPI registered a mere +0.1%. Most importantly, services inflation was completely flat, signaling to the Federal Reserve that the energy shock has not bled into the broader price structure.

The market is successfully “looking through” the conflict and discounting a favorable outcome. This allows the fundamental case to reassert itself, with Q1 earnings growth expected to hit 12.6%—the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. While real risks remain (WTI near $99, blockade confrontation risks, and elevated PCE estimates), the robust price action makes a clear statement that investors are leaning heavily on solid fundamentals and earnings momentum.

💰 The Income Generators (High Probability, Cash Flow)

• AMD: Bullish Put Spread capitalizing on sustained AI semiconductor demand for a top-tier chipmaker from our AI Semi Watchlist.

🚀 The Growth Seekers (Higher Risk, Max Reward)

• (No trades in this category today)

🛡️ The Portfolio Protectors (Hedges & Bearish Bets)

• SPY: Bearish Call Spread acting as a strategic hedge against an overextended relief rally as the index approaches multi-year resistance.

1. AMD ($255.07) – Capitalizing on AI Silicon

• We’re betting on: If AI semiconductor demand continues to drive capital into top-tier chipmakers like AMD, the stock will maintain its bullish momentum and hold above our $250 strike through late May.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the AMD May 29, 2026 250/230 Put Vertical @ $7.68 Credit.
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN May 29, 2026 230 Put @ $8.82
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN May 29, 2026 250 Put @ $16.50
• Trade Metrics: POP: 56.62% | Collect $768.00 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $1,232.00 (1.6:1).
• The Why: Highlighted on our AI Semi Watchlist, Advanced Micro Devices continues to benefit from robust secular tailwinds in data center expenditures and AI infrastructure buildouts, supporting its premium valuation.
• The Technicals: Displaying strong Relative Strength (9/10) within a confirmed Bullish Trend (1M & 6M), the stock recently bounced off its 50-day moving average and is setting up to re-test its $267 resistance level with strong support below at $188.
• Management:
  • ⚠️ Warning: Earnings is scheduled for May 05, which may require active management.
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $15.36 (100% of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $3.84 (50% of max gain).

2. SPY ($694.22) – Fading the Relief Rally

• We’re betting on: If the recent relief rally loses steam near 52-week highs and lingering macroeconomic or geopolitical risks resurface, SPY will fail to break through major overhead resistance, keeping the index below $695.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the SPY May 29, 2026 695/715 Call Vertical @ $10.09 Credit.
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN May 29, 2026 695 Call @ $15.74
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN May 29, 2026 715 Call @ $5.65
• Trade Metrics: POP: 60.51% | Collect $1,009.00 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $991.00 (1.0:1).
• The Why: With the market erasing recent war-driven losses and quickly approaching multi-year highs, selling call credit spreads provides a low-risk, high-probability hedge against potential exhaustion in the broader indices while still collecting premium.
• The Technicals: The ETF remains in a longer-term Bullish Trend (1M & 6M) but is currently testing significant overhead resistance near $696. A failure to break this ceiling provides a high-probability opportunity for a bearish spread above current prices.
• Management:
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $20.18 (100% of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $5.05 (50% of max gain).

💰 The Income Generators (High Probability, Cash Flow)

• CF: Bullish Put Spread capitalizing on a trend-following buy signal for a top pick from our Equity Research Buy List.
• XLE: Bullish Put Spread capturing premium in a top macro outperformer that just generated a fresh technical buy signal.

🚀 The Growth Seekers (Higher Risk, Max Reward)

• (No trades in this category today)

🛡️ The Portfolio Protectors (Hedges & Bearish Bets)

• RH: Bearish Call Spread fading a counter-trend rally amid severe fundamental deterioration, cautious guidance, and macro headwinds.

1. CF ($121.68) – Buying the Dip in Ag 

• We’re betting on: If CF Industries capitalizes on its strong market position and technical momentum, it will successfully bounce from this pullback and hold above our $120 strike through expiration.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the CF May 29, 2026 120/109 Put Vertical @ $4.35 Credit.
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN May 29, 2026 109 Put @ $3.75
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN May 29, 2026 120 Put @ $8.10
• Trade Metrics: POP: 55.60% | Collect $435.00 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $665.00 (1.5:1).
• The Why: Highlighted on our Equity Research Buy List, CF Industries is offering an attractive entry point after generating a fresh technical buy signal.
• The Technicals: Experiencing a constructive pullback within a longer-term Bullish Trend (6M) with Strong Relative Strength (9/10), the stock offers a highly favorable trend-following setup above its $114 support level.
• Management:
  • ⚠️ Warning: Earnings is scheduled for May 06, which may require active management.
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $8.70 (100% of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $2.18 (50% of max gain).

2. XLE ($57.11) – The Macro Energy Outperformer

• We’re betting on: If the macro environment continues to favor the energy sector and XLE maintains its outperformance, the ETF will defend its $57 support level, allowing this put spread to secure max profit.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the XLE May 29, 2026 57/53 Put Vertical @ $1.53 Credit.
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN May 29, 2026 53 Put @ $0.56
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN May 29, 2026 57 Put @ $2.09
• Trade Metrics: POP: 60.84% | Collect $153.00 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $247.00 (1.6:1).
• The Why: A standout on our Macro Outperformers list and Equity Research Buy List, the energy sector ETF continues to see strong tailwinds and just generated a renewed buy signal to write premium.
• The Technicals: Displaying Strong Relative Strength (9/10) within a primary 6M Bullish Trend, the ETF is consolidating and finding firm support near $56 before making another run at its $58 overhead resistance.
• Management:
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $3.06 (100% of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $0.77 (50% of max gain).

3. RH ($126.22) – Fading the Luxury Retailer 

• We’re betting on: If soft luxury spending and a severe earnings miss continue to weigh heavily on RH’s valuation, this counter-trend bounce will fail below our $130 strike, allowing the call spread to expire worthless.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the RH May 29, 2026 130/145 Call Vertical @ $5.20 Credit.
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN May 29, 2026 130 Call @ $10.90
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN May 29, 2026 145 Call @ $5.70
• Trade Metrics: POP: 66.87% | Collect $520.00 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $980.00 (1.9:1).
• The Why: RH looks fundamentally broken following a steep earnings and revenue miss, cautious forward guidance, and significant macro headwinds. Squeezed by softer luxury spending, housing market weakness, and margin compression from high costs and debt, the stock triggered a clear fundamental sell signal.
• The Technicals: Mired in a confirmed Bearish Trend (1M & 6M) below key moving averages with Very Weak Relative Strength (2/10), the stock recently experienced a counter-trend CCI rally that is swiftly failing below the massive $146 resistance zone.
• Management:
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $10.40 (100% of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $2.60 (50% of max gain).

Strategist Corner: The Naval Blockade & Market Reset

A lot happened this weekend, and the market is violently repricing a new phase of escalation. Following 21 hours of marathon negotiations in Islamabad, Iran refused to yield on nuclear enrichment and demanded permanent control of the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Trump declared a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait, ordering the interdiction of any vessel paying a toll to Iran, effective 10 a.m. ET Monday.

The fallout is immediate: Brent crude surged 7% back above $100, European gas futures spiked 18%, and equities are sliding. The core question now is who can absorb more pain. The U.S. and its allies face $4+ gasoline, stranded Gulf oil, and a fragile global economy. Iran, crippled by decades of sanctions, is built for asymmetric standoffs and holds massive leverage with over 600 vessels currently stranded in the Gulf. With the UK and Australia opting out of the blockade and China reportedly supplying air-defense systems to Tehran, a protracted conflict seems highly likely. The energy trade is officially restarting, with forecasts violently swinging from a 1.6M bpd surplus to a 750K bpd deficit.

Updated Positioning:

• Back to Long Energy: The supply picture has completely reset. We favor oil services, pipelines, and LNG as the geopolitical premium gets permanently priced back in.
• Long Gold: The ultimate safe haven. The blockade increases geopolitical risk, compounding inflation damage limits the Fed’s ability to cut, and gold thrives in this exact environment.
• Shift Defensive Equities: Reduce risk and favor value/defensives like utilities and consumer staples. While our AI and tech names remain fundamentally strong, a $100+ oil environment threatens severe multiple compression. Be selective, not aggressive.
• Maintain Portfolio Hedges: If you didn’t add SPX or VIX protection during last week’s relief rally, do it now. The risk of further escalation is very real.
• Watching Private Credit: Every week this conflict persists, financial conditions tighten. Rising oil and elevated rates are exacerbating structural vulnerabilities in private credit markets.

💰 The Income Generators (High Probability, Cash Flow)

• LNG: Bullish Put Spread adding exposure to a previous winner as the naval blockade acts as a massive catalyst for energy.
• AVGO: Bullish Put Spread capturing a technical breakout in a top AI Semiconductor pick, deliberately isolated from oil price shocks.

🚀 The Growth Seekers (Higher Risk, Max Reward)

• (No trades in this category today)

🛡️ The Portfolio Protectors (Hedges & Bearish Bets)

• BX: Bearish Call Spread acting as a strategic hedge against the tightening financial conditions threatening the private credit sector.

1. LNG ($265.54) – Pressing the Energy Advantage

• We’re betting on: If the newly declared naval blockade continues to choke global energy supply and drive up liquefied natural gas demand, LNG will hold its bullish momentum and stay comfortably above our $265 strike.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the LNG May 29, 2026 265/245 Put Vertical @ $8.20 Credit.
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN May 29, 2026 245 Put @ $5.35
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN May 29, 2026 265 Put @ $13.55
• Trade Metrics: POP: 57.95% | Collect $820.00 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $1,180.00 (1.4:1).
• The Why: Cheniere Energy was one of our top ideas on March 16, and after capturing 67% of max gain on that setup, the naval blockade presents a perfect macro catalyst to reload and add exposure as global energy prices gap higher.
• The Technicals: Displaying strong Relative Strength (8/10) within a confirmed 6M Bullish Trend, the stock has established a solid support base near $259 and is primed for continuation as the macro backdrop severely restricts global energy supply.
• Management:
  • ⚠️ Warning: Earnings is scheduled for May 07, which may require active management.
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $16.40 (100% of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $4.10 (50% of max gain).

2. AVGO ($371.55) – The Insulated AI Breakout

• We’re betting on: If AI infrastructure spending remains a secular priority completely insulated from energy-driven macro shocks, AVGO will sustain its breakout trajectory above our $355 strike.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the AVGO May 29, 2026 355/335 Put Vertical @ $6.58 Credit.
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN May 29, 2026 335 Put @ $9.82
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN May 29, 2026 355 Put @ $16.40
• Trade Metrics: POP: 62.06% | Collect $658.00 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $1,342.00 (2.0:1).
• The Why: Featured on our AI Semiconductor Buy List, Broadcom offers a calculated way to maintain long equity exposure to secular growth themes that remain fundamentally disconnected from the price of oil.
• The Technicals: Mired in a powerful dual Bullish Trend (1M & 6M) with solid Relative Strength (8/10), the stock recently broke out decisively above its prior $350 resistance level, converting the $365 zone into a new, hardened support floor.
• Management:
  • ⚠️ Warning: Earnings is scheduled for Jun 03, which falls just after expiration, requiring no immediate adjustment but worth monitoring.
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $13.16 (100% of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $3.29 (50% of max gain).

3. BX ($114.83) – The Private Credit Contagion

• We’re betting on: If tightening financial conditions and a prolonged oil shock exacerbate structural risks within private credit, BX will fail to hold its recent bounce and remain suppressed below our $115 short call.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the BX May 29, 2026 115/128 Call Vertical @ $4.50 Credit.
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN May 29, 2026 115 Call @ $6.80
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN May 29, 2026 128 Call @ $2.30
• Trade Metrics: POP: 62.96% | Collect $450.00 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $850.00 (1.9:1).
• The Why: Directly tying into our Strategist Corner update, the extended geopolitical timeline guarantees higher-for-longer inflation and tighter credit conditions. Highlighted on our Private Credit Stagflation sell list, Blackstone’s exposure to opaque lending markets makes it highly vulnerable to multiple compression.
• The Technicals: Suffering from weak Relative Strength (3/10) within a primary 6M Bearish Trend, the stock triggered a trend-following sell signal as a brief counter-trend rally met heavy selling pressure near overhead resistance.
• Management:
  • ⚠️ Warning: Earnings is scheduled for Apr 23, which may require active management.
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $9.00 (100% of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $2.25 (50% of max gain).

💰 The Income Generators (High Probability, Cash Flow)

• CCJ: Bullish Put Spread capitalizing on a bullish trend reversal, sourced from our AI Power Grid Research buy list.

🚀 The Growth Seekers (Higher Risk, Max Reward)

• (No trades in this category today)

🛡️ The Portfolio Protectors (Hedges & Bearish Bets)

• DASH: Bearish Call Spread acting as a trend-following hedge against a weak consumer discretionary profile.

1. CCJ ($115.54) – Powering the AI Grid

• We’re betting on: If the AI-driven expansion of the power grid continues to fuel demand for nuclear energy solutions, CCJ will maintain its bullish reversal and stay above our $115 strike through late May.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the CCJ May 22, 2026 115/105 Put Vertical @ $4.18 Credit.
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN May 22, 2026 105 Put @ $4.85
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN May 22, 2026 115 Put @ $9.03
• Trade Metrics: POP: 53.49% | Collect $418.00 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $582.00 (0.7:1).
• The Why: Sourced from our AI Power Grid Research buy list, Cameco is positioned to benefit significantly from the surging baseload power requirements of AI data centers, which are increasingly reliant on nuclear energy.
• The Technicals: Transitioning into a dual Bullish Trend (1M & 6M) with Strong Relative Strength (9/10), the stock recently experienced a bullish gap up and is establishing a firm support base near $115 with room to run toward $135 resistance.
• Management:
  • ⚠️ Warning: Earnings is scheduled for May 05, which may require active management.
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $8.36 (100% of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $2.09 (50% of max gain).

2. DASH ($154.55) – Fading Discretionary Delivery 

• We’re betting on: If consumer discretionary spending continues to weaken in a stagflationary environment, DASH’s counter-trend rally will fail beneath overhead resistance, keeping the stock suppressed below our $160 short strike.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the DASH May 22, 2026 160/180 Call Vertical @ $7.26 Credit.
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN May 22, 2026 160 Call @ $11.73
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN May 22, 2026 180 Call @ $4.47
• Trade Metrics: POP: 68.50% | Collect $726.00 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $1,274.00 (0.6:1).
• The Why: DoorDash represents a highly vulnerable segment of the consumer discretionary sector, facing margin pressures and slowing demand as consumers tighten their budgets, triggering a clear trend-following sell signal.
• The Technicals: Mired in a confirmed Bearish Trend (1M & 6M) with Very Weak Relative Strength (2/10), the stock is currently experiencing a short-term CCI rally that provides an optimal risk/reward setup to sell premium below the $169 resistance level.
• Management:
  • ⚠️ Warning: Earnings is scheduled for May 11, which may require active management.
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $14.52 (100% of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $3.63 (50% of max gain).

💰 The Income Generators (High Probability, Cash Flow)

• MU: Bullish Put Spread capitalizing on a technical breakout driven by our Semiconductors AI Research.
• BWXT: Bullish Put Spread leveraging a massive gap-up breakout for a top pick from our Power Grid – AI Research buy list.

🚀 The Growth Seekers (Higher Risk, Max Reward)

• (No trades in this category today)

🛡️ The Portfolio Protectors (Hedges & Bearish Bets)

• SOFI: Bearish Call Spread acting as a strategic hedge against fundamental weaknesses flagged in our private credit stagflation research.

1. MU ($406.73) – AI Memory Breakout

• We’re betting on: If sustained AI infrastructure investments continue to drive semiconductor memory demand, MU will maintain its breakout momentum above the $400 level, allowing this put spread to expire worthless for max profit.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the MU May 22, 2026 390/370 Put Vertical @ $7.90 Credit.
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN May 22, 2026 370 Put @ $22.05
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN May 22, 2026 390 Put @ $29.95
• Trade Metrics: POP: 54.97% | Collect $790.00 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $1,210.00 (1.5:1).
• The Why: Highlighted on our Semiconductors AI research buy list, Micron is perfectly positioned to capture expanding margins from surging memory demand tied to the global AI infrastructure buildout.
• The Technicals: Displaying a perfect 10/10 Relative Strength in a 6M Bullish Trend, the stock recently broke out above its 50-day moving average and the $400 psychological level, flipping prior resistance into firm support.
• Management:
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $15.80 (100% of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $3.95 (50% of max gain).

2. BWXT ($231.78) – Powering the Grid

• We’re betting on: If the AI-driven power grid expansion accelerates demand for nuclear components, BWXT will defend its recent gap-up and consolidate above our $230 strike, securing maximum premium.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the BWXT May 15, 2026 230/210 Put Vertical @ $7.05 Credit.
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN May 15, 2026 210 Put @ $6.50
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN May 15, 2026 230 Put @ $13.55
• Trade Metrics: POP: 55.92% | Collect $705.00 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $1,295.00 (1.8:1).
• The Why: Sourced directly from our Power Grid – AI Research buy list, BWX Technologies serves as a critical supplier for advanced nuclear solutions, directly benefiting from the massive energy requirements of next-generation data centers.
• The Technicals: The stock exhibits a powerful Bullish Trend (1M & 6M) with Strong Relative Strength (9/10), having just gapped up on high volume to shatter its $221 resistance level, which now serves as a robust support floor.
• Management:
  • ⚠️ Warning: Earnings is scheduled for May 04, which may require active management.
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $14.10 (100% of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $3.53 (50% of max gain).

3. SOFI ($16.49) – Fading Alternative Credit 

• We’re betting on: If rising stagflationary pressures and private credit vulnerabilities weigh heavily on alternative lenders, SOFI’s counter-trend bounce will fail against overhead resistance, keeping the stock below our $16.50 strike.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the SOFI May 22, 2026 16.5/19.5 Call Vertical @ $1.13 Credit.
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN May 22, 2026 16.5 Call @ $1.53
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN May 22, 2026 19.5 Call @ $0.40
• Trade Metrics: POP: 66.23% | Collect $113.00 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $187.00 (1.7:1).
• The Why: Featured in our private credit stagflation research, SoFi’s lending model faces significant headwinds as sticky inflation, higher-for-longer interest rates, and consumer credit stress threaten margins and loan growth.
• The Technicals: Mired in a dual Bearish Trend (1M & 6M) with Very Weak Relative Strength (2/10), the stock is experiencing a brief counter-trend rally that provides an optimal risk/reward setup to sell premium near the $17 resistance zone.
• Management:
  • ⚠️ Warning: Earnings is scheduled for Apr 29, which may require active management.
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $2.26 (100% of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $0.57 (50% of max gain).

Strategist Macro Update: The Iran Ceasefire & Market Reaction

The most consequential 90 minutes of the entire conflict played out Tuesday night. Hours after warning that “a whole civilization will die tonight,” Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif, suspending all US strikes contingent on Iran agreeing to the complete, immediate, and safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council accepted, with Tehran claiming the US accepted its 10-point proposal as the basis for negotiations. The market reaction was violent: WTI crashed 16% from an intraday high of $117 to below $94, Brent dropped 13% to ~$95, S&P 500 futures surged over 2.5%, Dow futures spiked 1,000 points, and 10-year yields dropped 9.5 basis points to 4.25%.

We are cautiously hopeful that this pause may lead to meaningful de-escalation, but the pattern over the past six weeks should temper expectations. We have seen multiple deadline extensions and diplomatic signals throughout this conflict, and each one produced sharp equity rallies that ultimately became selling or hedging opportunities as the war continued. What makes this time potentially different is oil. The magnitude of the move in crude is unlike any previous headline-driven pullback during this war. WTI dropping from $117 to $94 in a single session, the largest one-day decline since the 1991 Gulf War, suggests the physical market is assigning real probability to Hormuz reopening. Previous extensions saw oil barely flinch because there was no credible path to physical de-escalation. This time there is a framework attached, which matters.

But the next two weeks will determine everything. If the Strait actually reopens and commercial traffic resumes at scale, the relief trade has significantly more room to run, particularly in rate-sensitive areas of the market like small caps and transports that have been crushed by the stagflation regime. However, if this ceasefire follows the same path as previous ones, with deadlines passing, rhetoric escalating, and Hormuz remaining effectively closed, our thesis remains intact: oil at $150 to $200 is a plausible outcome with 20% of global supply offline, and the knock-on effects to consumer spending, corporate margins, and Fed policy would drive equities meaningfully lower from here. For now, the VIX collapse from 25 back toward 20 on this news tells you the equity market wants desperately to believe the war is over. The question is whether the oil market, which remains at $94-95 despite the crash, roughly 30% above pre-war levels, agrees.

On the data front, Friday’s March CPI (April 10, 8:30am) will be the first hard inflation print capturing the war’s energy impact and is expected to show meaningful acceleration. Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary also drops Friday. Next week, bank earnings begin with Goldman Sachs on April 13, followed by JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup on April 14, the first read on whether the oil shock is flowing through to consumer credit and corporate activity.

Because of this dynamic, today’s trading strategy takes a balanced, two-pronged approach. First, we are taking advantage of elevated volatility in the energy sector by selling a put spread on XLE; with the Strait of Hormuz not yet officially reopened, there remains significant upside risk that crude prices spike in the near future. On the equity side, we are balancing our long exposure. We are initiating a defensive position in ELV, capitalizing on its recent positive news to provide insulation from further oil shocks should the temporary ceasefire break down. Simultaneously, we are positioning for the bull case—a lasting de-escalation that brings down oil prices and interest rates—by entering a bullish trade on our top AI pick, GOOGL, which just broke out above its $310 resistance level on the news.

💰 The Income Generators (High Probability, Cash Flow)

• XLE: Bullish Put Spread capitalizing on elevated oil volatility as upside risk to crude prices remains while the Strait of Hormuz is not officially reopened.
• ELV: Bullish Put Spread providing a defensive long equity position insulated from energy shocks if the temporary ceasefire breaks down.

🚀 The Growth Seekers (Higher Risk, Max Reward)

• GOOGL: Bullish Put Spread leveraging a technical breakout for our top AI pick, positioning for a macro tailwind of lower rates and lasting de-escalation.

🛡️ The Portfolio Protectors (Hedges & Bearish Bets)

• (No trades in this category today)

1. XLE ($60.16) – Capturing the Oil Volatility

• We’re betting on: If the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and oil price volatility persists, XLE will maintain its bullish momentum and hold above our adjusted support level, allowing this premium collection trade to expire worthless.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the XLE May 22, 2026 60/56 Put Vertical @ $1.86 Credit. Pre-Market Adjustment:Due to pre-market price action, users will need to adjust the strike prices to $57/$53 and seek a credit of approximately the same price as the original setup.
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN May 22, 2026 56 Put @ $0.71
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN May 22, 2026 60 Put @ $2.57
• Trade Metrics: POP: 60.84% | Collect $186.00 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $214.00 (0.9:1).
• The Why: We are taking advantage of elevated implied volatility in the energy sector. Because the Strait of Hormuz has not yet fully reopened, significant upside risk to oil prices remains, supporting the broader energy complex.
• The Technicals: XLE exhibits maximum Relative Strength (10/10) within a confirmed Bullish Trend (1M & 6M), offering a high-probability setup to sell elevated premium as it consolidates above $58 support.
• Management:
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $3.72 (100% of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $0.93 (50% of max gain).

2. ELV ($311.98) – The Defensive Buffer 

• We’re betting on: If the temporary ceasefire falls through and market volatility returns, ELV’s defensive posture and positive fundamental news will insulate the stock from oil shocks and keep it floating above our adjusted strike.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the ELV May 15, 2026 310/290 Put Vertical @ $7.20 Credit. Pre-Market Adjustment:Due to pre-market price action, users will need to adjust the strike prices to $320/$300 and seek a credit of approximately the same price as the original setup.
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN May 15, 2026 290 Put @ $7.65
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN May 15, 2026 310 Put @ $14.85
• Trade Metrics: POP: 56.39% | Collect $720.00 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $1,280.00 (1.8:1).
• The Why: Taking a two-pronged long equity approach, Elevance Health provides defensive exposure backed by recent positive news, offering an attractive shelter with far less vulnerability to crude spikes if the ceasefire collapses.
• The Technicals: Transitioning from a longer-term Bearish trend into a short-term Mildly Bullish trend (1M), the stock is bouncing strongly off its $297 support level, reinforcing its defensive technical posture before testing $361 resistance.
• Management:
  • ⚠️ Warning: Earnings is scheduled for Apr 22, which may require active management.
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $14.40 (100% of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $3.60 (50% of max gain).

3. GOOGL ($305.46) – The AI Relief Rally

• We’re betting on: If a lasting de-escalation in the Middle East brings down oil prices and interest rates, this macro tailwind will accelerate GOOGL’s recent technical breakout and fuel its AI-driven growth trajectory.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the GOOGL May 15, 2026 305/290 Put Vertical @ $5.38 Credit. Pre-Market Adjustment: Due to pre-market price action, users will need to adjust the strike prices to $315/$300 and seek a credit of approximately the same price as the original setup.
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN May 15, 2026 290 Put @ $8.07
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN May 15, 2026 305 Put @ $13.45
• Trade Metrics: POP: 54.09% | Collect $538.00 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $962.00 (1.8:1).
• The Why: Alphabet remains our top AI stock pick. We are taking a long position to aggressively capitalize on the potential macro tailwinds of lower oil and interest rates following the temporary ceasefire, providing a highly favorable runway for the AI sector.
• The Technicals: Displaying strong Relative Strength (9/10), the stock recently broke out above its $310 resistance and 50-day moving average on pre-market news, shifting its momentum into a bullish posture with established support forming below.
• Management:
  • ⚠️ Warning: Earnings is scheduled for Apr 29, which may require active management.
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $10.76 (100% of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $2.69 (50% of max gain).

💰 The Income Generators (High Probability, Cash Flow)

• VLO: Bullish Put Spread capitalizing on a trend-following buy signal driven by geopolitical tailwinds from our Iran Oil & Gas Research.
• MRVL: Bullish Put Spread leveraging a major technical breakout for a top pick from our AI – Semiconductor and Strong Outperform Buy Lists.

🚀 The Growth Seekers (Higher Risk, Max Reward)

• NFLX: Long Call Spread targeting a beat-and-raise earnings setup for a tech safe haven highlighted on our Strong Outperform Buy List.

🛡️ The Portfolio Protectors (Hedges & Bearish Bets)

• (No trades in this category today)

1. VLO ($245.58) – Refining the Geopolitical Edge

• We’re betting on: If geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict continue to elevate energy prices and support domestic refiners, VLO will maintain its bullish momentum and hold above our $245 strike through late May.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the VLO May 22, 2026 245/225 Put Vertical @ $7.80 Credit.
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN May 22, 2026 225 Put @ $6.55
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN May 22, 2026 245 Put @ $14.35
• Trade Metrics: POP: 55.85% | Collect $780.00 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $1,220.00 (1.6:1).
• The Why: Sourced from our Iran Oil & Gas Research, Valero Energy is positioned to benefit from sustained geopolitical tailwinds and strong domestic refining margins, triggering a new trend-following bullish signal.
• The Technicals: Displaying maximum Relative Strength (10/10) within a confirmed Bullish Trend (1M & 6M), the stock recently experienced a CCI dip and is bouncing off its $206 support, offering a favorable setup to write premium before testing the $258 resistance level.
• Management:
  • ⚠️ Warning: Earnings is scheduled for Apr 30, which may require active management.
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $15.60 (100% of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $3.90 (50% of max gain).

2. MRVL ($109.51) – The Data Center Breakout

• We’re betting on: If AI semiconductor demand remains robust and capital continues flowing into top-tier chipmakers, MRVL will defend its recent breakout and stay above our $109 strike, allowing the short put spread to expire worthless.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the MRVL May 22, 2026 109/97 Put Vertical @ $4.94 Credit.
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN May 22, 2026 97 Put @ $4.08
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN May 22, 2026 109 Put @ $9.02
• Trade Metrics: POP: 54.89% | Collect $494.00 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $706.00 (1.4:1).
• The Why: Featured on both our Equity Research Strong Outperform Buy List and AI – Semiconductor Research, Marvell Technology is capitalizing on surging data center and AI infrastructure demands.
• The Technicals: Showcasing a perfect 10/10 Relative Strength within a 6M Bullish trend, the stock recently broke out above a major psychological resistance level at $100, converting it into a strong support floor.
• Management:
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $9.88 (100% of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $2.47 (50% of max gain).

3. NFLX ($98.93) – The Tech Safe Haven

• We’re betting on: If Netflix delivers a beat-and-raise earnings report and maintains its status as a safe haven amid broader tech volatility, the stock will surge past $100 resistance, allowing this debit spread to capture its maximum upside reward.
• The Trade: Buy to Open the NFLX May 15, 2026 99/112 Call Vertical @ $4.26 Debit.
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN May 15, 2026 99 Call @ $5.45
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN May 15, 2026 112 Call @ $1.19
• Trade Metrics: POP: 34.84% | Pay $426.00 per contract vs. a Max Reward of $874.00 (2.1:1).
• The Why: Highlighted on our Strong Outperform Buy List, Netflix acts as a tech safe haven amid tariff concerns and macro volatility, backed by robust subscriber growth, expanding ad revenues, and a recent Goldman Sachs upgrade heading into earnings.
• The Technicals: Transitioning into a short-term Bullish trend (1M), the stock is bouncing off its $90 support level and preparing to confidently test the $100 resistance mark, offering a favorable risk/reward setup for a breakout.
• Management:
  • ⚠️ Warning: Earnings is scheduled for Apr 16, which may require active management.
  • Stop Loss: Sell the spread at $2.13 (50% loss on premium).
  • Take Profit: Sell the spread at $7.46 (75% gain on premium).

💰 The Income Generators (High Probability, Cash Flow)

• EOG: Bullish Put Spread capitalizing on a trend-following buy signal for a top pick from our Equity Research Buy List.
• MTDR: Bullish Put Spread leveraging undervalued fundamentals and geopolitical tailwinds in the Oil & Gas sector.

🚀 The Growth Seekers (Higher Risk, Max Reward)

• (No trades in this category today)

🛡️ The Portfolio Protectors (Hedges & Bearish Bets)

• COF: Bearish Call Spread hedging against rising credit card delinquencies, mounting charge-offs, and an overvalued fundamental profile.

1. EOG ($142.64) – Pumping the Energy Trend

• We’re betting on: If the energy sector continues to see inflows and EOG’s bullish momentum holds support above our $140 strike, this credit spread will expire worthless for max profit.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the EOG May 15, 2026 140/130 Put Vertical @ $3.30 Credit.
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN May 15, 2026 130 Put @ $2.65
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN May 15, 2026 140 Put @ $5.95
• Trade Metrics: POP: 60.91% | Collect $330.00 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $670.00 (2.0:1).
• The Why: Sourced from our Equity Research Buy List, EOG Resources offers compelling fundamental value and generated a fresh technical buy signal, making it a prime candidate to capture premium in the energy space.
• The Technicals: EOG is in a strong Bullish Trend (1M & 6M) with maximum Relative Strength (10/10), recently triggering a trend-following buy signal as it bounces off its $136 support level.
• Management:
  • ⚠️ Warning: Earnings is scheduled for May 05, which may require active management.
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $6.60 (100% of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $1.65 (50% of max gain).

2. MTDR ($62.90) – Undervalued Energy Edge

• We’re betting on: If the ongoing Iran conflict maintains a premium on domestic energy producers and MTDR’s undervalued fundamentals attract buyers, the stock will stay comfortably above our $62.50 strike.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the MTDR May 15, 2026 62.5/57.5 Put Vertical @ $1.97 Credit.
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN May 15, 2026 57.5 Put @ $2.03
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN May 15, 2026 62.5 Put @ $4.00
• Trade Metrics: POP: 55.50% | Collect $197.00 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $303.00 (1.5:1).
• The Why: MTDR screens highly on our undervalued fundamentals list. Aligned with our broader bullish thesis on Oil & Gas due to the Iran War, Matador offers excellent exposure to sustained elevated energy prices.
• The Technicals: Mired in a powerful Bullish Trend (1M & 6M) with perfect Relative Strength (10/10), the stock generated a buy signal following a short-term pullback to its $56 support zone.
• Management:
  • ⚠️ Warning: Earnings is scheduled for Apr 29, which may require active management.
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $3.94 (100% of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $0.99 (50% of max gain).

3. COF ($181.92) – Fading the Consumer Credit Risk

• We’re betting on: If rising consumer credit stress and integration headwinds from the Discover acquisition continue to weigh on Capital One’s valuation, the stock will fail to reclaim its $185 resistance.
• The Trade: Sell to Open the COF May 15, 2026 185/200 Call Vertical @ $5.55 Credit.
  • 🔴 SELL TO OPEN May 15, 2026 185 Call @ $9.40
  • 🟢 BUY TO OPEN May 15, 2026 200 Call @ $3.85
• Trade Metrics: POP: 65.18% | Collect $555.00 per contract vs. a Max Risk of $945.00 (1.7:1).
• The Why: Capital One faces severe fundamental headwinds as domestic credit card net charge-offs climb past 5.17% and 30-day delinquencies approach 4%. Compounded by heavy loan-loss provisioning and integration risks following its Discover acquisition, the stock’s current multiple is highly vulnerable.
• The Technicals: Mired in a dual Bearish Trend (1M & 6M) with weak Relative Strength (3/10), the stock recently triggered a sell signal on a counter-trend bounce, facing massive overhead resistance near $200.
• Management:
  • ⚠️ Warning: Earnings is scheduled for Apr 21, which may require active management.
  • Stop Loss: Buy back the spread at $11.10 (100% of credit received).
  • Take Profit: Buy back the spread at $2.78 (50% of max gain).