DailyPlay – Opening Trade (AAPL) – May 22, 2025

AAPL Bearish Opening Trade Signal

Investment Rationale

Apple Inc. (AAPL) is beginning to show technical and valuation vulnerabilities that make it an attractive candidate for a bearish trend-following setup. The stock has struggled to regain its prior uptrend and now faces macro headwinds, decelerating growth, and a challenging valuation profile. While the company remains fundamentally strong, its premium pricing and lack of near-term growth catalysts create a scenario where downside exposure is warranted, especially if broader market weakness persists.

AAPL has recently broken down from a multi-month consolidation range and failed to reclaim its 200-day moving average. The stock’s rally into the $210–$215 zone is losing momentum, stalling just below key resistance from its downward-sloping 50-day and 200-day moving averages. With price struggling to sustain upward momentum, the technical setup suggests a likely continuation lower, targeting the $170–$175 support zone.

AAPL’s valuation remains stretched relative to its growth profile, reflecting investor optimism that may not be supported by fundamentals over the next several quarters. While profitability remains high, the company’s growth metrics are lagging behind sector averages, calling into question the justification for its elevated PE ratio.

• Forward PE Ratio: 29.47x vs. Industry Median 19.42x
• Expected EPS Growth: 8.30% vs. Industry Median 11.04%
• Expected Revenue Growth: 5.31% vs. Industry Median 5.76%
• Net Margins: 24.30% vs. Industry Median 8.78%

Buy the AAPL Jul 18, 2025 $205/$180 Put Vertical for $7.50 to express a bearish view with defined risk. This spread profits if AAPL trades below $197.50 at expiration, with a breakeven near recent support. The slightly in-the-money structure boosts delta exposure while capping risk, delivering a 2.3:1 reward-to-risk ratio if AAPL reaches the $170 downside target.

AAPL – Daily

Trade Details

Strategy Details

Strategy: Long Put Vertical Spread

Direction: Bearish Debit Spread

Details: Buy to Open 3 AAPL July 18 $205/$180 Put Vertical Spreads @ $7.50 Debit per Contract.

Total Risk: This trade has a max risk of $2,250 (3 Contracts x $750) based on a hypothetical $100k portfolio risking 2%. We suggest risking only 2% of the value of your portfolio and divide it by $750 to select the # contracts for your portfolio.

Trend Continuation Signal: This is a bearish trade on a stock that is expected to continue lower off a recent area of resistance.

1M/6M Trends: Bearish/Bearish

Relative Strength: 3/10

OptionsPlay Score: 147

Stop Loss: @ $3.75 (50% loss of premium)

View AAPL Trade

Entering the Trade

Use the following details to enter the trade on your trading platform. Please note that whenever there is a multi-leg option strategy, it should be entered as a single trade. 

PLEASE NOTE that these prices are based on Wednesday ‘s closing prices. Should the underlying move significantly during the pre-market hours, we will likely adjust the strikes and prices to reflect a more accurate trade entry. 

View AAPL Trade